[水泥价格指数第16周]:华东行情持续上调,局部涨价疲态初显

2017-04-24 15:07:48

上周全国整体市场行情仍处于上行通道,特别是华东地区普遍持续上调,但是部分其他地区上涨难度逐渐增大,河南地区前期涨价彻底失败,川渝联动破产,重庆主城区及周边价格回落。此外,浙江主导企业于24日开始再次上调水泥价格,哈尔滨地区主导企业计划五一开始推动新一轮涨价。

  上周全国整体市场行情仍处于上行通道,特别是华东地区普遍持续上调,但是部分其他地区上涨难度逐渐增大,河南地区前期涨价彻底失败,川渝联动破产,重庆主城区及周边价格回落。此外,浙江主导企业于24日开始再次上调水泥价格,哈尔滨地区主导企业计划五一开始推动新一轮涨价。

  上周末全国水泥价格指数收报108.90点,环比上涨0.74%,超过2015年17.50个百分点,超过去年同期32.97个百分点;长江水泥价格指数收报105.16点,环比上涨2.56%,较去年同期上涨26.61个百分点。

  图1:近三个月全国及长江区域价格指数走势

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥研究院

  分区域来看,上周华东地区仍维持上行,但其他多地价格上涨乏力,开始出现回落现象。其中,华东各省仍在持续上调水泥价格,区域水泥价格指数环比增长2.03%。西南地区,特别是重庆及周边地区需求不佳竞争加剧,区域水泥价格指数环比下滑0.37个百分点。华北地区部分水泥价格小幅回落,水泥价格指数环比下跌0.64%。此外,东北、中南和西北地区整体行情变化不大。

  表1:六大区域价格指数变化

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥研究院

  分省市来看,上周有10个省市自治区的水泥价格有所上调,长三角地区仍然是价格上涨主力。其中,上海地区P.O42.5散装水泥价格涨幅最大,达到6.53%,江苏、浙江和安徽分别有2.98%、1.62%和0.35%的环比涨幅。江西地区水泥价格持续反弹,周内环比上涨4.09个百分点。此外,北京地区水泥价格受中小企业影响有环比2.38%的回落,重庆需求不佳,价格竞争性下调1.57%。

  图2:全国31省市上周P.O42.5散装水泥价格环比涨跌幅度(%)

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥网行情数据中心

  东北地区工程开工逐渐增多,整体需求达到五成左右。其中,辽宁出货量虽有所恢复,但多是受到前期涨价刺激影响,区域大厂继续维持高价稳定,出货量相对不佳,部分企业为提升销量有小幅回落。此外,唐山低价水泥对辽西市场有一定的影响。黑龙江、吉林需求基本在三至五成左右,主导企业报价暂稳,但目前挂牌价较年前已回涨20~30元/吨。同时,哈尔滨地区主导企业计划五一开始上调水泥价格至少20元/吨。

  华北地区京津冀市场挂牌报价仍维持高位,但实际落实价格受中小企业影响并不理想。目前北京金隅冀东日销两万吨左右,挂牌报价在410元/吨左右,但唐山民营企业涨幅有限,到位价差价明显。天津地区需求回升有限,出货疲软。河北中南地区价格落实难度较大,小厂低价影响明显,部分市场低标价格出现回调。山西北部大同、朔州、沂州等地水泥价格继续上涨,中部太原地区的短时大幅拉涨落实较难。内蒙古地区需求尚在恢复,厂家销量恢复至四至五成,而且外销比例较大。

  西北地区市场总体平稳,部分地区还在落实前期涨价。其中,陕西榆林前期调账幅度较大,上周仍在推进落实,陕南和关中地区两轮上调已基本落实。近期关中需求尚可,受短时阴雨影响有小幅波动,天气晴好时大厂日销万吨左右。甘肃、青海三月涨价后基本落实,另外,两省部分厂家因矿山开采受限或生产事故影响产能发挥受限,推动涨价落实。新疆需求逐渐启动,虽然今年新疆项目投资较多,但现今多处于立项准备阶段,水泥需求还未释放,目前行情暂稳,且仍有小部分企业在停窑限产。

 华东地区市场行情整体维持上行,但长三角地区部分价格上调未能完全落实。月中江苏水泥价格普涨后,苏南地区高标水泥各厂多数落实10~20元/吨,19-20日苏北地区继续上调10~15元/吨,从市场反馈情况看,4月需求表现平稳增长有限,加之前期价格连翻上调,客户观望情绪加重。浙江衢州水泥市场受到江西的制约,价格上调落后于省内其他地区,但自月中江西价格普涨后,衢州水泥价格也开始出现反弹。同时,浙江沿海市场需求较好,水泥企业和中转库库存偏高,市场持续走高。此外,主导企业有意在24日对省内价格再次上调20~30元/吨左右。安徽市场需求进一步恢复,皖北熟料库存持续紧张,19日皖北地区水泥价格再次上调,皖南六安周边水泥、熟料价格持续上涨,带动六安在17日再次上调高标水泥价格。但是由于车辆限载,淮北地区水泥价格小幅下滑。月中江西地区水泥价格普涨,据悉尚有部分厂家未能全幅调整到位,赣州地区20日部分大厂开始通知上调水泥价格。福建福州前期调账基本落实到位,月中沿海海螺再次上调高标散泥价格,其余品牌暂未跟进。整体来看,除闽北受江西、浙江价格上调带动有上扬表现外,其他地区表现平平。山东省内熟料库存中等偏低,近期有外来低价熟料通过海运流入烟台、青岛、潍坊等地,对当地市场有所影响。

  中南地区市场行情大稳小动,局部市场略有上调。其中,河南月初调涨基本失败,中旬起豫北地区水泥价格率先回落,中南部周口、许昌等地大厂陆续回落20~40元/吨,同时受外省熟料价格影响,湖南熟料也难以维持前期高价水平。14~18日湖南怀化主要厂家陆续上调各品种水泥价格,湘西地区三月价格走低后,周内开始回涨。此外,永州、益阳价格竞争压力较大,部分厂家价格小幅下滑,且短期暂无回涨预期。湖北市场大体平稳,局部地区零星下调。周内鄂西北及豫西南地区主要厂家召开交流会议,意在规范市场秩序,营造区域良好市场环境。本周广东降雨增多,整体需求有所下滑,但主导企业库存适中,运行压力不大,周内梅州地区再次上调低标水泥价格,周边潮州等地同步走高,粤西阳江也有跟进上调。此外,茂名地区低标水泥价格竞争性走低20元/吨。广西需求受阴雨影响受到抑制,但周内百色、南宁、崇左等地熟料价格提涨10~20元/吨,水泥价格暂无上涨预期。

  西南地区阴雨增多,川渝局部市场持续走弱。四川成都及周边地区仍在落实上调水泥价格,但是由于近期需求不佳,企业库存压力大增,部分企业无意川渝联动上调,各自为战导致重庆及川东南市场陆续回落。四川广安、达州等地水泥价格回落对重庆主城区及合川、梁平、垫江、万州等交界影响较大,中旬以来重庆主要厂家下调各品种水泥10~20元/吨。此外,重庆綦江、万盛等南部山区受外围水泥价格影响不大,周内报价上涨20元/吨,但对整体行情趋势并无影响。贵州16日起主要厂家再次通知上调水泥价格,其中黔南州仅有个别片区通知上调,同时铜仁地区也开始涨价跟进周边地区价格。云南大理、丽江、昆明等地大型项目需求支撑较好,邵通地区水泥价格走高20元/吨。

  表2:上周各地水泥价格变动详情(元/吨)

  数据来源:中国水泥网行情数据中心


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Correlation

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