[原创]2016年华东地区水泥市场:产量平稳,行情回暖

2017-01-25 08:57:04

2016年华东地区水泥需求仍有小幅度的回升,但水泥和熟料的产量并没有大幅增长,基本与去年保持一致的水平。华东长三角地区在二季度短期涨价失败后回落,8月份之后重启涨势,此后市场行情一路走高,年底高位收稳。和全国其他地区一样,华东地区2016年水泥市场回暖,为2017年开年的水泥行情奠定了良好的基础。

  华东地区包括六省一市,由北向南分别是山东省、江苏省、安徽省、上海市、浙江省、江西省、福建省,也是六大区域中南北跨度较大的区域,其中,江西省和安徽省在经济板块划分中位于中部地区,其他省市位于东部地区。华东地区自然环境条件优越,物产资源丰富,是我国经济发达地区。华东地区多数省份位于沿海地区,海运便利,北接环渤海京津冀地区,南达福建沿海,中间还有长江三角洲地区,水泥需求旺盛,同时区域内还拥有黄河下游、长江中下游和京杭大运河等江河水运资源,水运基础设施完善。

  华东地区经济发达,需求旺盛,同时交通运输四通八达,成为各大水泥企业争夺的战略要地,但是区域内各个地区的经济发展又有着很大的差距,而且不同地区的竞争环境、市场态势也不一样,总结2016年华东地区乃至于各个省市的水泥市场有重要的意义。

一、市场供需状况

1.1 水泥需求小幅增长

  2016年华东地区的固定资产投资额累计同比和房地产投资额累计同比全年均为正增长,但是年内有一定的起伏波动。其中,固定资产投资累计同比在年初迅速提升,在二季度超过11%后又逐步回落,年末稳定在10%左右的水平。相对来说房地产投资额累计同比年内波动幅度更大,同样在一季度迅速提升,二季度达到接近7%的水平,随后出现大幅回落,7月份低至5%左右,后半年又出现波动回升,年末稳定在同比6%的增速水平上。可以看出固定投资走势受到了房地产投资的影响,而房地产投资波动则是由于2016年年初房地产市场火热的拉动,资金在房价上涨回笼后又重新投入到房地产投资中。

图1:华东地区固投和房投累计值和同比(%,亿元)


  数据来源:国家统计局

  2016年华东地区新开工面积同比和竣工面积同比整体都呈现大幅度下降趋势,新开工面积同比自一季度上涨至30%的顶点后持续下滑,到年底只有10%左右的水平,年底竣工面积更是接近于去年同期水平,同比增长略高于0。同时,全年新开工面积同比整体高于竣工面积同比,年底差距缩小,说明施工面积持续增长,但是增长速度在下行趋势上,数据来看,全年施工面积同比增速较低,始终保持在5%以内,年底下滑至2%以下。2016年年初房地产市场火热,销售面积在一季度持续上涨,二季度之后逐渐转淡下滑。

  图2:华东地区施工、新开工、竣工和销售面积与同比(万平方米,%)


  数据来源:国家统计局

1.2熟料产能集中度较高,水泥产量与去年持平

  根据中国水泥网数据,截止2016年底,华东地区水泥产能接近5亿吨。山东和安徽地区熟料产能较多,分别达到了1.2亿吨和1.3亿吨,分别占华东地区24.38%和26.96%。上海地区没有产能分布,无论是熟料还是水泥都以外来流入为主。区域内前十大水泥企业熟料产能占整个华东地区的68%,其中,中国建材熟料产能最多,达到1.3亿吨,占华东地区26%左右,其次是海螺水泥,占比接近19%。

  图3:华东地区各省熟料产能占比


  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥研究院

  图4:华东地区熟料产能前十水泥企业占比


  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥研究院

  2016年年初华东地区仍受2015市场下滑以及淡季影响,熟料和水泥产量低至冰点,但是在一季度水泥产量增速迅速回升,累计同比回升到正值,相对来说熟料产量回升速度较慢,在二季度末才达到去年同期水平。三、四季度水泥和熟料累计同比增长都稳定在0左右,产量均与去年持平。在2016年水泥价格全国范围内普遍上涨的形势下,华东地区水泥产量并没有出现增长,而是与去年市场下滑时期持平,特别是长江三角洲地区的江苏局部和浙江受G20期间停窑影响,导致熟料、水泥产量都有同比下降,只有山东受京津冀地区市场回暖拉动,水泥和熟料的产量出现明显的同比增长。

  图5:华东地区水泥、熟料的产量和同比增速(%,万吨)


  数据来源:国家统计局

  从华东地区的熟料产能发挥率上来看,华东地区整体的产能发挥率为77.81%。上海本地并没有熟料产量和熟料产能分布。除此之外,安徽地区熟料产能发挥率最高,达到92.49%,福建和江西的熟料产能发挥率也均在80%以上,熟料产能得到充分利用,浙江地区熟料产能利用率最低,只有66.48%,整体来看,华东地区的熟料产能利用程度相比于其他地区更高。

  图6:华东地区熟料产能发挥率


  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥研究院

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Correlation

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