[水泥指数]价格涨势放缓,局部地区已现松动

2016-09-29 09:06:18

上周全国水泥价格涨势明显放缓,华东地区涨价余波仍在,但局部省份价格已经出现松动下行。江西省9月份第二轮价格全面上涨引领华东地区价格上行,同时长三角一带在G20峰会之后水泥发货量增加,企业为提升效益继续涨价。由于环保压力河南工地及搅拌站仍存在大量停工,前期价格大幅上涨最终难以落地,全省价格出现普降之势。

  上周全国水泥价格涨势明显放缓,华东地区涨价余波仍在,但局部省份价格已经出现松动下行。江西省9月份第二轮价格全面上涨引领华东地区价格上行,同时长三角一带在G20峰会之后水泥发货量增加,企业为提升效益继续涨价。由于环保压力河南工地及搅拌站仍存在大量停工,前期价格大幅上涨最终难以落地,全省价格出现普降之势。

  上周五中国水泥价格指数收报86.97,较中秋节前环比上涨0.15个点;长江水泥价格指数收报83.4,环比上涨0.29个点。

  图1:近三个月全国及长江区域价格指数走势

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥研究院

  分区域来看,上周华北、华东、西南地区价格指数均出现环比上涨,华北地区主要是山西个别城市水泥价格上行,华东地区长三角一带价格继续上涨,西南地区价格指数上扬则主要是因重庆价格出现小幅上涨。东北地区上周价格指数未出现明显波动;中南、西北地区出现小幅下降,河南价格普降是导致中南地区价格指数走弱的主要原因。

  表1:六大区域价格指数变化

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥研究院

  分省市来看,上周价格出现上涨的有10个,数量较前期有所下降;涨幅最大的是江西省,P.O42.5散装均价环比上涨2.58%。上周价格出现下降的只有一个省份--河南,降幅为2.08%。无论从价格变动省份个数还是从涨跌幅度来看,上周价格整体变化幅度较前期已经明显放缓。

  图2:全国31省市上周P.O42.5散装水泥价格环比涨跌幅度(%)

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥网行情数据中心

  上周华北地区市场继续平稳运行,周内运输新政启动,运费上涨两到三成,受此影响后半周水泥销量有所下滑;北京地区砂石运费大涨,商混用量下降导致水泥发货量走低。20日河北地区继续召开错峰生产会议,计划省内9月27日-10月7日停产,冀北唐山、张家口、承德及冀南邢台地区根据实际情况安排停产时间,到10月底停窑天书必须大于10天。同时,受原燃料及运费价格上涨影响,水泥端价格有上行动力,但前期涨价仍有很多小厂未能跟进,预计下一轮价格上涨动力较大。山西下旬大通、忻州、朔州陆续开展停窑限产,各主要厂家停3-5天不等;内蒙古行情暂稳。

  东北地区延续上旬态势,辽宁部分地区企业自9月份以来价格有所上调,但实际执行情况不甚理想,吉林、黑龙江市场无明显波动。9月上旬吉林省化解水泥产能过剩专题工作会议在长春召开。提出计划以亚泰集团、北方水泥、冀东水泥和金隅水泥为主体,按照市场运作、协会组织和政府推动的原则,通过重组的方式组建吉林省水泥集团有限公司,一体化经营管理,并逐步实现压减熟料产能800万吨的目标。如果该方案能够实施,吉林省市场格局将出现巨大改变,对于东北三省的水泥市场将产生重大影响。

  9月份西北地区除陕西关中、宁夏银川一带价格有上行表现,其余地区市场价格总体稳定。近期天气情况较好,甘肃、青海部分厂家产销情况有所好转。甘肃兰州下半年继续推行30%限产措施,新疆同样坚持限产穏价,库车每条生产线全年正常生产120天左右,阿克苏、库尔勒继续执行隔月停窑限产。

  G20峰会后,华东地区涨价余温仍在。江西省厂家涨价意愿强烈,18日江西各地再次上调全品种水泥20元/吨,熟料价格同步上调20-30元/吨,出现9月份以来第二轮全面价格上涨。安徽沿江地区除少数生产线仍在停窑检修,各主要企业窑、磨均已陆续开启,加之天气晴好,本地需求及外来船运需求皆有增长,沿江安庆一带上调水泥、熟料出厂价10-20元/吨。浙江工地、搅拌站陆续复工但需求回升不明显,为提升盈利23日海螺、南方等主要厂家计划23日上调沿海温州、台州市场高标号水泥20元/吨,其余地区也有提价计划。江苏苏南地区中秋节前后出现小幅松动下滑,市场需求一半,主导企业仍在酝酿推涨价格。福建龙岩、三明、漳州、厦门等地在21-22日价格开始上调,各主要厂家已陆续发布价格调整通知,但由于需求不旺,部分大厂对经销商及大客户涨价落实幅度只有一半左右。山东省第二轮全省夏季错峰停窑在20日结束,但由于前期价格推涨未完全落实到位,且当前需求依旧不足,预期后期或会有降价争夺市场的情况出现。

  中南地区两湖地区继续落实前期价格推涨,两广局部地区价格调涨继续进行,河南则出现价格回落。前期价格上调后两湖销量出现短时下滑,经过一段时间的消化上周两湖区域产销略有好转,全面价格上调也逐渐落实。在上旬广西贵港、玉林等多低价格上涨后,上周崇左地区主导企业价格跟随上调,南宁市场价格暂稳;广东上周只有江门、深圳地区部分企业价格上调。河南区域环保严查仍在继续,工地及商混站仍有大量停工,由于市场需求不足,前期涨价无法落实上周出现回落现象,各地水泥价格普降10-20元/吨。

 西南地区上周略有阴雨,四川地区受影响较大,短时出现波动。上周重庆个别企业价格出现上调,这只是前期价格上涨的延续。贵州、云南地区上周价格暂稳,云南地区企业有上调意愿,预计10月份价格将有所变化。

  各省市价格变动详情如下表:

  表2:上周各地水泥品牌价格变动详情(元/吨)

  数据来源:中国水泥网行情数据中心

  以上为上周全国及部分地区行情的总体概况,欲了解六大区域和省份更多细节,请查看每周区域(东北/华北/中南/华东/西南/西北)周评,欲了解各省水泥价格,请查看水泥网数据中心

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