[水泥指数]:华东涨价延续 北方部分地区价格现松动

2016-09-14 09:23:15

9月上旬华东地区受G20峰会影响余温依旧,水泥价格继续上扬,长江流域水泥价格的继续上涨带动全国水泥价格指数同样出现上扬走势。9月12日CEMPI为86.77,较8月底上张0.97个点;YRCPI为83.22,较8月底上涨0.93个点。

  8月底,长三角地区受G20峰会的影响出现一轮价格大幅上涨,9月初,江西赣东北主导企业价格继续上调,同时浙江区域发往江西市场的全品种水泥价格上调,4日,江西其余地区全品种陆续跟进上调20元/吨,全省完成又一轮全面推涨。同样受沿江省份熟料、水泥价格上调的影响,福建部分地区价格提升。长江流域水泥价格的继续上涨带动全国水泥价格指数同样出现上扬走势。9月12日CEMPI为86.77,较8月底上张0.97个点;YRCPI为83.22,较8月底上涨0.93个点。

  图1:近三个月全国及长江区域价格指数走势

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥研究院

  分区域来看,9月上旬六大区域较8月底价格均有上涨变化,与8月底相比变化幅度最大的是西北地区,而拉动西北价格上行的主要是陕西区域;华北地区北京价格继续强行上涨;东北辽宁部分地区价格推涨,但吉林、黑龙江均出现价格下行走势;西南地区重庆拉动水泥价格小幅上涨;中南地区两湖、两广水泥价格均现明显上扬;拉动华东地区价格继续上行的主力是江西和浙江。

  表1:六大区域价格指数变化

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥研究院

  进入9月份,华北地区市场仍无明显起色,前期京津冀价格推涨落实并不理想,北京地区金隅、冀东仍坚持高位报价,天津、河北局部地区则出现价格回落。河北停窑结束,但市场价格并未因限产出现上扬走势,停窑只起到了保价穏价的作用,冀南地区价格承压回落,保定价格则联动北京出现价格上调。山西地区继续联动上调,长治地区主导企业尝试推涨各规格水泥20元/吨,北部地区企业有意停窑穏价。内蒙古整体需求有所下滑,行情暂稳。

  东北地区需求旺季不旺,黑吉两地短时局部施工加速的情况逐渐消退,吉林长春、通化等地部分厂家报价有所回落,黑龙江个别地区企业报价也出现回落,辽宁为期半个月的停窑结束,市场止跌维稳。

  9月上旬西北地区陕西关中西安、咸阳、宝鸡、铜川、渭南等区域各厂家在9号普遍上调水泥、熟料价格,据市场反馈除海螺各厂对全品种上调20元/吨,其余厂家不同品种上调20-35元/吨,部分厂家上调30-40元/吨。本轮价格大幅上调并非因需求改善,后期落实有待观察。此外宁夏银川、石嘴山、中卫等地区部分企业上旬报价也出现10-20元/吨的上扬,青海、甘肃一带价格稳定。新疆地区乌鲁木齐9月初价格下滑10-20元/吨,目前疆内继续推行停窑限产限供政策,整体价格水平有望继续维稳。

  华东地区受G20峰会停窑限产的影响9月上旬价格继续上扬,7日起江苏地区厂家陆续恢复生产,受皖北、鲁南价格上调影响苏北徐州、连云港等低价格推涨,落实有待观察。浙江停窑力度较大,9月7-8日金华、建德、衢州、丽水及绍兴、杭州市场普遍开始又一轮价格上调。苏南浙北水泥价格上调带动上海区域内水泥市场价格上涨,上旬涨幅基本落实到位。9月上旬,江西由北至南价格普遍上调,全境完成新一轮价格推涨。受江浙皖停窑影响,水泥发运量趋紧,福建局部地区因此上调部分品种水泥价格。山东9月起省内开始停窑限产,枣庄、淄博、潍坊、济南等地水泥出厂价出现幅度不等的上扬。后期金九银十或推涨华东区域内水泥价格继续上行。

  9月上旬中南地区两湖大部分地区出现明显价格上扬,湖南由北至南价格实现普涨;湖北地区随着洪涝灾害消退灾后重建催生水泥需求,同时受G20峰会影响主要沿江生产基地停产限产,1日起鄂东地区主要厂家普遍上调个品种袋装水泥30元/吨,部分厂家散装水泥也做了相应调整。两广地区同样保持价格上扬走势,广东粤北、珠三角及粤西地区继8月底价格上扬后9月保持继续上扬预期,预计20日后价格将再次上调;广西近期天气好,需求有所回升,1日起桂林、贺州、贵港等地水泥、熟料价格推涨10-20元/吨,8日北部百色地区主要厂家试探性上调报价。进入9月河南地区工地、商混站仍有大量停工,开工率不足五成,市场价格却依然由主导企业继续推涨。

  西南地区9月上旬只有重庆部分企业推涨水泥价格,其他地区市场需求不足,且前期涨幅尚未完全落实,尽管部分地区仍在继续推涨价格,但预计后期落实情况并不乐观。

  分省市来看,9月上旬价格出现上涨的有14个省市区,其中涨幅最大的为陕西,P.O42.5散装均价较8月底上涨7.12%,陕西、河南、北京市场均价上涨均超过15元/吨,江苏、两广、山东、宁夏、湖北涨幅则均未超过1%。上旬价格出现下跌的有5个省市区,新疆跌幅最大,P.O42.5散装均价较8月底下跌1.03%,其余四个省市跌幅均未超过1%。

  图2:全国31省市上周P.O42.5散装水泥价格环比涨跌幅度(%)

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥网行情数据中心

  各省市价格变动详情如下表:

  表2:上周各地水泥品牌价格变动详情(元/吨)

  数据来源:中国水泥网行情数据中心

  以上为上周全国及部分地区行情的总体概况,欲了解六大区域和省份更多细节,请查看每周区域(东北/华北/中南/华东/西南/西北)周评,欲了解各省水泥价格,请查看水泥网数据中心

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Correlation

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