[水泥指数]:长三角涨势佳,北方市场仍未启动

2016-03-16 09:10:48

上周,长三角地区出现价格明显上涨,北方地区除陕西南部大部分地区水泥价格上涨,其余的华北、东北市场仍未见有效启动,价格维持稳定。其他如中南的两广地区价格仍有继续下行的波动,西南地区同样仍是涨跌互现,但市场价格波动幅度不大。整体来看,上周全国水泥需求仍未出现较好的恢复,水泥价格在企业推涨的情况下整体略有回升。

  上周,长三角地区出现价格明显上涨,江苏、浙江、安徽大部分地区价格出现10-20元/吨的上调,从而带动上海市场价格上扬。北方地区除陕西南部大部分地区水泥价格上涨,其余的华北、东北市场仍未见有效启动,价格维持稳定。南方建筑工程市场启动仍较为缓慢,但因前期华东地区尤其是安徽、江苏等地水泥价格偏低,企业涨价意愿较为强烈,因此,价格上涨大部分是企业行为而非市场行为。其他如中南的两广地区价格仍有继续下行的波动,西南地区同样仍是涨跌互现,但市场价格波动幅度不大。整体来看,上周全国水泥需求仍未出现较好的恢复,水泥价格在企业推涨的情况下整体略有回升。

  上周五,全国水泥价格指数为78.30,环比上涨0.53%,同比仍有18.67%的下降;长江水泥价格指数为73.85,环比上涨1.53%,同比降幅缩至17.43%。

  图1:中国水泥价格指数走势图

  

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥网指数中心

  分区域来看,华东受长三角地区水泥价格的普遍上涨指数出现环比增加;西北地区受陕西南部地区价格普涨指数也有小幅上扬;中南地区受两广价格的继续下滑指数继续走低;东北地区吉林省个别企业价格出现明显下调区域价格指数微幅下降;华北地区价格保持稳定,西南地区由于各省变化有涨有跌,涨跌相抵令整个区域价格保持平稳运行。

  表1:上周六大区域水泥价格指数变化情况

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥网指数中心

  上周,全国31个省份中价格出现明显变化的有5个,分别为浙江、江苏、安徽、陕西、广西(吉林省水泥价格为后台调整,实际价格未发生波动),其中前四个省份为价格上涨,广西价格为下降。涨幅最大的为江苏,价格环比上涨4.14%,广西价格环比下降1.3%。

  图2:全国31省市上周P.O42.5散装水泥价格环比涨跌幅度(%)

  

  数据来源:中国水泥网,中国水泥研究院

  从各地区价格变动详细情况来看,出现明显下跌的只有吉林省和广西地区,吉林省只有个别地区个别企业价格出现下调,据中国水泥网调研结果显示,此次价格调整主要是企业在前期受访中表示后期价格有下调预期,但由于市场尚未启动价格并未发生实质性调整,价格行情中心从当地实际市场价格对个别前期报价偏高的企业进行修正。广西价格下调主要是华润和海螺两个企业,其他企业并未跟调。

  江苏、浙江、安徽上周全省大面积价格上涨,不同类型企业价格出现10-20元/吨价格上调。随着前期熟料价格上调落地,加之水泥价格偏低,企业涨价意愿强烈,本轮价格上涨有望获得实质性进展。华东其余地区如山东主要厂家也在积极组织价格上涨,喊涨声音较多,但执行情况有待观察。江西省内价格则继续下行,上周主要集中在赣西地区,随着周边市场价格的下滑,萍乡、新余、宜春、吉安等地厂家相继下调水泥价格10-30元/吨不等。

  上周中南地区两广延续价格下行走势,但两湖市场表现略好,尤其是湖北鄂东地区企业发货量明显回升,对价格略有上调,而河南地区错峰生产将在月中结束,受停窑影响,区域内熟料库存偏低,主导企业近期亦有上调意向。

  西南地区市场变化不一,云贵地区涨跌互现。贵州大部分地区市场启动缓慢,水泥销量不佳,部分企业库满停窑,企业报价无较大变化,但较多厂家增加了优惠措施导致水泥实际成交价下浮10-20元/吨;云南丽江、大理部分工程开工启动加速,上周多数厂家相继上调水泥及熟料价格20元/吨。川渝地区行情弱势运行,四川成、德及周边地区继续落实前期的上调计划,但因需求增长有限落实较为困难。

  表2:价格出现变动的主要省份及品牌情况(P.O42.5散装)

  

    数据来源:中国水泥网行情数据中心,中国水泥研究院


  以上为上周全国及部分地区行情的总体概况,欲了解六大区域和省份更多细节,请查看每周区域(东北/华北/中南/华东/西南/西北)周评,欲了解各省水泥价格,请查看水泥网数据中心

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