[水泥指数]:指数再次攀升 中南持续向好

2014-11-03 13:43:31

上周五,中国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为101.81点,环比上涨0.72%,涨幅较上期有所扩大,呈稳中有升走势。与去年同期相比,价格下跌6.89%,跌幅开始企稳。上周,中南多地水泥价格再创新高使得全国水泥价格指数再次抬头,除中南外,其余五大区域变动不大。上周,长江流域水泥价格指数为98.33点,环比上涨0.55%,与去年同期相比,跌幅进一步扩大至9.52%。今年华东地区受需求乏力影响,区域内上涨较去年艰难。

  上周五,中国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为101.81点,环比上涨0.72%,涨幅较上期有所扩大,呈稳中有升走势。与去年同期相比,价格下跌6.89%,跌幅开始企稳。上周,中南多地水泥价格再创新高使得全国水泥价格指数再次抬头,除中南外,其余五大区域变动不大。上周,长江流域水泥价格指数为98.33点,环比上涨0.55%,与去年同期相比,跌幅进一步扩大至9.52%。今年华东地区受需求乏力影响,区域内上涨较去年艰难。

图1:中国水泥价格指数再次攀高

数据来源:中国水泥研究院

  分区域看,东北地区10月下旬以来随着气温下降,企业出货量连续下滑。上周黑龙江多地受雨雪影响,需求明显走低。辽宁、吉林两省工程项目处于扫尾阶段,总需求环比上月同期下降20%,水泥价格保持平稳,部分地区有零星下跌。

  华北京津冀地区市场表现平稳,工程因年底赶工导致企业销量有所好转,不过价格仍保持相对稳定的走势。进入11月,京、津两地水泥企业将停产15天左右,河北唐山也将有停产限制,预计后期价格继续走稳为主。山西、内蒙古市场进入淡季,需求走淡,水泥价格与上期持平,后期市场继续走淡,价格预计继续保持低位走稳为主。

  华东江浙两地部分地区价格推涨,但执行效果不理想,两地整体需求未有明显变化,实际市场价格基本与上期持平。安徽省因农忙结束施工需求有所增加,皖北地区上周在主导企业带动下与淮海地区同步推涨,其余中小企业跟涨。山东民用市场需求不足,北部及沿海一带低标价格略有下跌,散装水泥除个别品牌有涨跌外,总体价格平稳。福建10月底企业出货量有所回升,企业报价平稳,福州厂家于近期酝酿涨价,不过各厂库存较高,预计难度仍大。江西总体行情平稳,产销基本平衡,主导企业因需求上涨表现不足推涨意向尚难推进,目前以稳价为主。上海上周受雨水影响,出货量有所回落,但价格未有下跌继续保持平稳。

  中南地区广东省进入传统旺季,需求持续向好,25日省内主导企业纷纷上调各规格水泥价格,预计进入11月份熟料价格会跟涨。广西28日价格再次上涨,总体下游需求较旺,预计受周边省份价格上涨影响,价格会继续上调。两湖地区天气较好,企业出货量明显增加,湖南永州、娄底、怀化及湖北荆门纷纷上调水泥价格,部分地区价格在十月份已连续几周上涨,累计涨幅在30~50元/吨左右。河南产销与上期相当,省内价格下调减少,除平顶山个别品牌价格走低外,总体行情平稳。海南省上周区域内需求表现良好,但价格表现依旧平稳,未有上涨趋势,预计随着周边市场的好转,海南价格会出现回升。

  西南地区西藏因需求下滑,企业出货减少,山南、日喀则地区水泥价格走低。贵州受紫云西南低价投放市场影响,自安顺、关岭水泥价格走低后,贵阳地区于上周也有所走低。重庆市需求好转,继前期价格上调后,上周袋装水泥继续上调,散装水泥报价趋稳,个别品牌回调,总体走势平稳。云南上周天气晴好,需求好转,26日主导企业价格开始上调,其余企业跟调。四川省虽为传统旺季,企业价格也有所跟涨,然而因需求增长不足,实际执行不佳,市场价格保持平稳。

  西北地区陕西省继宝鸡价格上调后,渭南地区主导企业于上周也跟涨,销入西安地区的水泥价格也有所上涨。甘肃受陕西地区价格上调影响,27日主导企业对陇南、天水部分水泥价格上调,当地企业库存水平较高,市场走淡,此轮掉价执行情况有待观察。宁夏因工程年底赶工企业销量有所增加,青海、新疆气温下降,需求萎缩,三地价格总体平稳,

  上周,全国共有8个省份的水泥价格出现上涨,其中广东、湖北、陕西、广西涨幅居前,分别为5.05%、2.24%、1.8%和1.02%,云南、湖南、安徽、河北涨幅低于1%;而水泥价格出现回落的省份也有8个,其中西藏、贵州领跌,环比分别下跌1.03%和0.79%,其余下跌省份为河南、甘肃、重庆、江苏、宁夏、山东,总体跌幅较小。

图2:全国31省市上周价格环比情况(%)

数据来源:中国水泥研究院

  从价格出现变动的主要省份具体情况上看,上周,广东天气持续晴好,市场需求持续走高,广州、佛山、惠州、江门、深圳、中山等珠三角区域海螺、华润、台泥、塔牌、光大等主要企业上调各规格水泥价格30元/吨,其余周边中小企业都跟随调整,清远地区各规格水泥价格也同幅度上涨,涨后珠三角市场主流出厂P.C32.5袋装360-380元/吨,P.O42.5散装390-410元/吨;湖北下游需求逐步提高,28日荆门地区主要企业上调各规格水泥价格20~30元/吨,十月以来,荆门地区已累计上涨了50元/吨,此外,武汉华祥、洋房等品牌水泥价格也上涨了30元/吨左右;陕西地区自24日宝鸡水泥价格大幅上涨后,27日渭南地区主要企业尧柏旗下尧柏蒲城、富郦、实丰厂对42.5级水泥上调30元/吨,32.5级水泥上调15元/吨,海螺、冀东对销西咸一带水泥价格上调20-30元/吨左右。

  上周,西藏地区气温降低,水泥市场需求走淡,企业出货量下降,华新在日喀则和山南地区的价格走低10~25元左右;贵州受紫云西南水泥低价水泥投放市场影响,前期安顺、管理、六枝多地水泥价格走低,因贵阳周边水泥价格纷纷走低,贵阳区域内水泥价格也走低20元/吨左右。

表1:价格出现变动的主要省份及品牌情况

数据来源:中国水泥网行情数据中心

  以上为上周全国及部分地区行情的总体概况,欲了解六大区域更多细节,请查看每周区域(东北/华北/中南/华东/西南/西北)周评。

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Correlation

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