[水泥指数]:总体需求仍弱 短期继续走稳

2014-10-27 11:16:05

上周五,中国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为101.08点,环比上涨0.19%,短期继续平稳走势。上周,水泥需求环比未有明显提升,但企业积极稳价,华东中南价格稳中有升,大幅调涨处于酝酿之中。目前全国水泥价格与去年同期相比,跌幅进一步扩大至-6.96%。根据计算,去年10月底至12月底期间,水泥价格的涨幅为7%左右,现阶段总体需求仍弱,,预计今年四季度价格将很难达到去年高位。

  上周五,中国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为101.08点,环比上涨0.19%,短期继续平稳走势。上周,水泥需求环比未有明显提升,但企业积极稳价,华东中南价格稳中有升,大幅调涨处于酝酿之中。目前全国水泥价格与去年同期相比,跌幅进一步扩大至-6.96%。根据计算,去年10月底至12月底期间,水泥价格的涨幅为7%左右,现阶段总体需求仍弱,预计今年四季度价格将很难达到去年高位,水泥企业在全年收获的最大旺季的盈利水平不容乐观,明年上半年或迎冷冬。上周,长江流域水泥价格指数为97.79点,环比上涨0.25%,但企业出货却呈下滑走势,价格与去年相比,同比增长逼近-10%,为-9.42%。从价格上看,今年总体呈现出年初高但价格下行,年尾低但上行不大的特征。

图1: 指数短期继续平稳走势

数据来源:中国水泥研究院

  分区域看,东北地区逐步步入冬季施工阶段,户外施工将逐渐停止,水泥价格以稳为主。黑吉两省施工开始减少,主导企业稳价静待冬储,辽宁省涨跌不一,总体以跌为主,市场普遍认为冬储意义不大,纷纷降价走量。

  华北京津冀地区因雾霾治理及下个月的APEC会议,对北京实施施工及交通限制,对天津将进行15天左右的停产。区域内项目进展缓慢,需求较去年同期减少20%左右。河北部分企业也将实施停产,时间尚未明确,主产地仍正常生产,仅个别厂家降价,总体价格基本持平。山西、内蒙古两省主要企业报价平稳,两地市场需求低迷态势仍无改观,预计未来继续低稳运行。

  华东地区浙江省18日主要企业水泥价格出现普遍上涨,江苏、安徽、山东20日起部分企业相继上调水泥或熟料价格。总体来讲,四省自价格上涨以来,出货量明显减少,部分企业库存上涨,本轮价格上行有待进一步观察,预计有回调可能。福建、上海水泥价格基本持平,受江浙价格上涨影响,上海上调概率较大。江西需求明显回升,低标水泥价格有所上涨,高标总体持平,随着需求进一步向好,或有再次涨价可能。

  中南地区广西需求逐步提高,企业库存下降,省内主要产地价格上涨,广东鄂东一带价格频繁上调,需求向好,上周末珠三角水泥、熟料普涨。两湖市场需求提升也很明显,两省处于市场旺季,厂家出货增加,当地企业再次纷纷涨价,湖南拟建项目开工在即,后期需求依旧较好,而湖北上周价格上调主要以袋装水泥价格为主。河南、海南继续平稳运行,河南价格总体呈北低南高表现,靠近河北地区价格较低。

  西南地区贵州省需求下降,受外围水泥侵扰,多地价格走低。重庆继上旬价格走高后,本期价格保持平稳。四川、云南需求增长乏力,价格暂稳。西藏受气温下降及雨水影响,省内需求走低,个别地区降价走量,总体报价平稳。

  西北地区甘肃、宁夏、陕西价格保持下行,甘肃民用需求明显下滑,低标价格大幅滑落,散装高标也出现回落,总体需求不足。宁夏开工项目较少,需求季节性回落,平凉、固原等地价格下调。陕西区域内涨跌不一,整体仍以跌为主,受农忙季需求下滑影响,淡季因素至销量下滑,但宝鸡地区主导企业有涨价行为,目前价格低位企业陷亏损经营状态,此轮领涨若能带动区域价格上行,有望减轻当地企业经营压力。青海、新疆报价与上期持平,两地天气转冷,青海价格稳中有跌,新疆在冬季停产执行后,区域内竞争态势将有所缓解。

  上周,全国共有6个省份的水泥价格出现上涨,其中湖南、浙江涨幅居前,分别为2.6%和1.57%,广西、江苏、安徽涨幅低于1%;而水泥价格出现回落的省份有5个,其中甘肃领跌,环比下跌1.57%,其余下跌省份为宁夏、贵州、陕西、辽宁,总体跌幅较小。

图2:全国31省市上周价格环比情况(%)

数据来源:中国水泥研究院

  从价格出现变动的主要省份具体情况上看,上周,湖南厂家出货量继续增加,需求表现较好,21日起湖南娄底、邵阳地区水泥价格继续上涨,海螺、南方等主要企业上调各规格水泥及熟料价格20-30元/吨左右,后期需求依旧看好;浙江自18日建德海螺高标价格走高30元/吨后,20日起浙江湖州、金华、丽水、杭州及周边建德、衢州地区红狮、南方、双狮、金圆等主要水泥企业高标水泥价格普遍上涨20-30元/吨,部分地区低标价格同步上调,台州地区低标水泥价格亦普遍上调15元/吨;甘肃省上周需求继续下行,因民用需求下滑,低标水泥出现较大回落,兰州、白银多地主要品牌散装价格也出现一定程度的回落,整体价格下行。

表1:价格出现变动的主要省份及品牌情况

数据来源:中国水泥网行情数据中心

  以上为上周全国及部分地区行情的总体概况,欲了解六大区域更多细节,请查看每周区域(东北/华北/中南/华东/西南/西北)周评。

All can be viewed after purchase
Correlation

Northwest China's Commercial Mixed Market Demand Is Stable and Weak..

2025-04-03 17:02:53

Southwest concrete market is weak and stable

2025-04-03 16:36:44

The concrete market in East China has risen slightly.

2025-04-03 16:36:12

Weak Concrete Market in Northeast China

2025-04-03 16:32:13

The price of mixed commodities in central and southern China fluctuates slightly..

2025-04-03 16:25:45

According to the data center of China Cement Network, the cement market in southwest China has changed frequently. Prices in Sichuan and Yunnan have fluctuated and fluctuated recently. Cement prices in Chongqing have been stable after rising.

2025-03-31 15:24:35

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the Yangtze River Delta region in East China is planning to continue to push up cement prices by 20-30 yuan/ton around the end of the month, and the implementation is to be tracked. The implementation in Shandong is not good enough, and some of them have fallen back to the level before the rise.

2025-03-31 14:52:47

The concrete market in East China is stable and small.

2025-03-28 16:37:08

Southwest concrete market is temporarily stable

2025-03-28 16:26:21

Northeast concrete market under pressure

2025-03-28 16:21:27

Weak Recovery of Commercial Mixed Market Demand in Northwest China..

2025-03-28 16:17:56

There is no big change in the price of commercial mixing in central and southern China.

2025-03-28 16:13:52

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, last week, Guangdong Pearl River Delta, Western Guangdong and Hainan and other market notifications rose 20-30 yuan/ton, Guangxi region rose after the temporary stable operation. Last week, cement prices in the two lakes region were temporarily stable, and some regions in eastern Hubei began to notice a rise.

2025-03-24 14:33:03

According to the data center of China Cement Network, the cement market in Northeast China was stable as a whole last week, and the price did not fluctuate significantly.

2025-03-24 14:17:15

Weak and stable operation of concrete market in southwest China

2025-03-21 17:09:38

The concrete market in East China is stable and small.

2025-03-21 17:08:50

Weak Recovery of Commercial Mixed Market Demand in Northwest China..

2025-03-21 17:06:43

The market demand for concrete in Northeast China is recovering

2025-03-21 17:05:24

The price of commercial mixing in central and southern China is stable and small.

2025-03-21 16:09:27

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, this week, major enterprises in the central and southern regions of Guangxi notified an increase in cement prices by 30 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong market is running steadily and strongly. This week, cement prices in the two lakes region are mainly stable temporarily, and enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices.

2025-03-14 17:37:56

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the cement market in Northeast China is gradually recovering.

2025-03-14 17:32:00

Weak Recovery of Commercial Mixed Market Demand in Northwest China..

2025-03-14 16:53:48

Weak and stable concrete market in southwest China

2025-03-14 16:49:32

Northeast concrete market is stable

2025-03-14 16:36:25

The market price of concrete in East China is stable and strong.

2025-03-14 16:34:48

The price of commercial mixing in central and southern China is stable and small.

2025-03-14 16:28:56

Weak Recovery of Commercial Mixed Market Demand in Northwest China..

2025-03-07 17:00:03

The market of concrete in southwest China is recovering slowly, and the price is weakening.

2025-03-07 16:53:37

The price of commercial mixing in central and southern China is mainly stable.

2025-03-07 16:35:12

The northeast concrete market has not yet recovered.

2025-03-07 16:31:55

According to the market data of China Cement Network, the cement market in Northeast China is gradually recovering.

2025-03-07 16:16:56

According to the Chinese cement net quotation data news, the North China area rises the sound.

2025-03-07 16:10:59

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: The Commercial Mixed Market in Northwest China Is Stable

2025-02-28 16:58:07

Concrete prices in East China are temporarily stable

2025-02-28 16:36:03

Slow Recovery of Concrete Market in Southwest China

2025-02-28 16:30:31

Northeast concrete market downturn

2025-02-28 16:23:02

The price of commercial mixing in central and southern China is weak.

2025-02-28 16:22:09

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: The price of raw materials in some parts of East China has been pushed up, and the power of concrete adjustment is slightly insufficient.

2025-02-21 17:46:36

There is no obvious start of the commercial mixed market in Northwest China.

2025-02-21 17:33:44

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the cement market in southwest China is weak. Leading enterprises in Chongqing raised the price of cement by 50 yuan/ton last week, but the current market demand recovery is not good, the actual transaction price has not increased significantly, the specific situation remains to be further tracked and confirmed.

2025-02-21 17:31:38

China Cement Network Market Data Center News: The slow recovery of the concrete market in the southwest region, the price is weakening.

2025-02-21 17:28:34

The northeast concrete market is stable.

2025-02-21 16:57:08

The price of commercial mixing in central and southern China has been slightly loosened.

2025-02-21 16:21:02

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in the main city of Chongqing and the west of Chongqing in the southwest region has recovered by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; the cement market in the southwest region is weak.

2025-02-14 17:21:13

According to China Cement Market Data Center, after the Spring Festival in central and southern China, the transaction price of some enterprises in western Guangdong fell by 20-30 yuan/ton, while the overall quotation of the rest of the market stabilized. Prices in Nanning, Guangxi, continue to decline, and the rest of the market may have sporadic follow-up downward expectations. The overall market in Hunan and Hubei is stable and small, and there are signs of price reduction in some markets.

2025-02-14 17:11:15

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: There Is No Obvious Start in the Commercial Mixed Market in Northwest China

2025-02-14 17:06:32

The price of mixed commodities in central and southern China is stable and weak.

2025-02-14 16:52:05

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: Raw material prices continue to decline, the East China concrete market is weak.

2025-02-14 16:19:41

The concrete market in southwest China has not yet recovered.

2025-02-14 16:14:41

Low activity of concrete market in Northeast China

2025-02-14 16:00:38