[水泥指数]:总体需求仍弱 短期继续走稳

2014-10-27 11:16:05

上周五,中国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为101.08点,环比上涨0.19%,短期继续平稳走势。上周,水泥需求环比未有明显提升,但企业积极稳价,华东中南价格稳中有升,大幅调涨处于酝酿之中。目前全国水泥价格与去年同期相比,跌幅进一步扩大至-6.96%。根据计算,去年10月底至12月底期间,水泥价格的涨幅为7%左右,现阶段总体需求仍弱,,预计今年四季度价格将很难达到去年高位。

  上周五,中国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为101.08点,环比上涨0.19%,短期继续平稳走势。上周,水泥需求环比未有明显提升,但企业积极稳价,华东中南价格稳中有升,大幅调涨处于酝酿之中。目前全国水泥价格与去年同期相比,跌幅进一步扩大至-6.96%。根据计算,去年10月底至12月底期间,水泥价格的涨幅为7%左右,现阶段总体需求仍弱,预计今年四季度价格将很难达到去年高位,水泥企业在全年收获的最大旺季的盈利水平不容乐观,明年上半年或迎冷冬。上周,长江流域水泥价格指数为97.79点,环比上涨0.25%,但企业出货却呈下滑走势,价格与去年相比,同比增长逼近-10%,为-9.42%。从价格上看,今年总体呈现出年初高但价格下行,年尾低但上行不大的特征。

图1: 指数短期继续平稳走势

数据来源:中国水泥研究院

  分区域看,东北地区逐步步入冬季施工阶段,户外施工将逐渐停止,水泥价格以稳为主。黑吉两省施工开始减少,主导企业稳价静待冬储,辽宁省涨跌不一,总体以跌为主,市场普遍认为冬储意义不大,纷纷降价走量。

  华北京津冀地区因雾霾治理及下个月的APEC会议,对北京实施施工及交通限制,对天津将进行15天左右的停产。区域内项目进展缓慢,需求较去年同期减少20%左右。河北部分企业也将实施停产,时间尚未明确,主产地仍正常生产,仅个别厂家降价,总体价格基本持平。山西、内蒙古两省主要企业报价平稳,两地市场需求低迷态势仍无改观,预计未来继续低稳运行。

  华东地区浙江省18日主要企业水泥价格出现普遍上涨,江苏、安徽、山东20日起部分企业相继上调水泥或熟料价格。总体来讲,四省自价格上涨以来,出货量明显减少,部分企业库存上涨,本轮价格上行有待进一步观察,预计有回调可能。福建、上海水泥价格基本持平,受江浙价格上涨影响,上海上调概率较大。江西需求明显回升,低标水泥价格有所上涨,高标总体持平,随着需求进一步向好,或有再次涨价可能。

  中南地区广西需求逐步提高,企业库存下降,省内主要产地价格上涨,广东鄂东一带价格频繁上调,需求向好,上周末珠三角水泥、熟料普涨。两湖市场需求提升也很明显,两省处于市场旺季,厂家出货增加,当地企业再次纷纷涨价,湖南拟建项目开工在即,后期需求依旧较好,而湖北上周价格上调主要以袋装水泥价格为主。河南、海南继续平稳运行,河南价格总体呈北低南高表现,靠近河北地区价格较低。

  西南地区贵州省需求下降,受外围水泥侵扰,多地价格走低。重庆继上旬价格走高后,本期价格保持平稳。四川、云南需求增长乏力,价格暂稳。西藏受气温下降及雨水影响,省内需求走低,个别地区降价走量,总体报价平稳。

  西北地区甘肃、宁夏、陕西价格保持下行,甘肃民用需求明显下滑,低标价格大幅滑落,散装高标也出现回落,总体需求不足。宁夏开工项目较少,需求季节性回落,平凉、固原等地价格下调。陕西区域内涨跌不一,整体仍以跌为主,受农忙季需求下滑影响,淡季因素至销量下滑,但宝鸡地区主导企业有涨价行为,目前价格低位企业陷亏损经营状态,此轮领涨若能带动区域价格上行,有望减轻当地企业经营压力。青海、新疆报价与上期持平,两地天气转冷,青海价格稳中有跌,新疆在冬季停产执行后,区域内竞争态势将有所缓解。

  上周,全国共有6个省份的水泥价格出现上涨,其中湖南、浙江涨幅居前,分别为2.6%和1.57%,广西、江苏、安徽涨幅低于1%;而水泥价格出现回落的省份有5个,其中甘肃领跌,环比下跌1.57%,其余下跌省份为宁夏、贵州、陕西、辽宁,总体跌幅较小。

图2:全国31省市上周价格环比情况(%)

数据来源:中国水泥研究院

  从价格出现变动的主要省份具体情况上看,上周,湖南厂家出货量继续增加,需求表现较好,21日起湖南娄底、邵阳地区水泥价格继续上涨,海螺、南方等主要企业上调各规格水泥及熟料价格20-30元/吨左右,后期需求依旧看好;浙江自18日建德海螺高标价格走高30元/吨后,20日起浙江湖州、金华、丽水、杭州及周边建德、衢州地区红狮、南方、双狮、金圆等主要水泥企业高标水泥价格普遍上涨20-30元/吨,部分地区低标价格同步上调,台州地区低标水泥价格亦普遍上调15元/吨;甘肃省上周需求继续下行,因民用需求下滑,低标水泥出现较大回落,兰州、白银多地主要品牌散装价格也出现一定程度的回落,整体价格下行。

表1:价格出现变动的主要省份及品牌情况

数据来源:中国水泥网行情数据中心

  以上为上周全国及部分地区行情的总体概况,欲了解六大区域更多细节,请查看每周区域(东北/华北/中南/华东/西南/西北)周评。

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Correlation

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