[水泥指数]:指数掉头调整 价格涨后趋稳

2014-10-20 13:14:15

上周五,中国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)掉头调整,为100.89点,环比下跌0.23%,结束连续三周的上涨走势,这主要是因为价格在前期上涨后下游需求并未有相应的大幅回升表现,企业为走量或稳价或降价,总体呈涨后回调趋稳走势。与去年同期相比,水泥价格同比增速跌至-6.74%,继续扩大。

  自9月26日水泥价格指数强势拉升至100点以上之后,指数上涨走势有趋缓之象,进入四季度价格上涨力度远低于去年同期水平。上周五,中国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)掉头调整,为100.89点,环比下跌0.23%,结束连续三周的上涨走势,这主要是因为价格在前期上涨后下游需求并未有相应的大幅回升表现,企业为走量或稳价或降价,总体呈涨后回调趋稳走势。与去年同期相比,水泥价格同比增速跌至-6.74%,继续扩大。上周,长江流域水泥价格指数为97.55点,环比下跌0.42%,跌幅高于全国平均水平,结束连续七周的上涨走势。去年同期,长江流域水泥价格大幅上涨,而今年却出现下跌,致使同比跌幅扩大至8.7%,显示今年长江流域价格上行面临极大阻力。据市场反馈,本轮回调并不意味着上涨行情的结束,只是部分地区企业的价格回落以消化高库存压力,下一阶段因旺季预期,多地企业仍有上涨意图。

图1: 指数掉头回调,总体呈涨后趋稳走势

数据来源:中国水泥研究院

  分区域看,上周,东北地区气温继续下降,黑吉两省尤其明显,下游需求开始萎缩,民用需求环比下降,区域水泥企业以稳价为主。不过,随着销量的继续下行,预计部分中小企业为提升销量采取降价举措。

  华北地区京津冀部分工程进入年尾赶工阶段,需求略有回升,但企业报价维稳。11月APEC会议期间仅对北京五环内有施工及交通有影响,对周边市场影响不大。虽然因雾霾治理而导致部分企业的陆续关停,但下游需求因天气转冷而出现回落,价格预计不会有大的波动。山西、内蒙古两地水泥价格继续低位运行,山西北部及内蒙古北部一带随着气温下降,需求呈回落状态,后期企业依旧以稳价为主。

  华东地区上周除江西、上海外,多省企业价格或稳或降,整体以回调为主。浙江省十一长假之后总体需求环比没有明显增长,少数企业为提升销量价格出现回落,总体以走稳为主。江苏国庆期间需求下降,部分大厂库存维持在较高水平,企业出厂价格出现下调,个别企业执行价格折让措施。安徽整体进入了短期维稳阶段,个别企业略有回落,但是沿江企业库存不高,企业仍有再次涨价的可能。福建因9月底价格出现上涨,销售形势趋于严峻,为消化库存,部分品牌有价格回调行动。山东十月份需求增长不大,随着天气转冷,未来需求呈下滑走势,预计持续以稳为主。江西14日起主要地区水泥厂家上调价格,当地需求增加,价格呈上行走势。上海需求依旧呈上升走势,不过价格在上周表现相对平稳,预计后期或有涨价行动。

  中南地区广东涨后趋稳,不过据市场反馈,十月中下旬珠三角或迎二次上涨。广西市场需求进入十月依然呈逐步增长的态势,上周百色地区价格有所上涨,随着雨季、农忙结束,市场逐步恢复。湖南天气转好,多地工程开工量增加,部分地区企业水泥价格继续上行,市场整体向好。湖南、海南价格保持平稳,河南个别企业水泥价格仍有下调,豫北一带价格下行迹象明显。

  西南地区贵州多地价格继续走低,市场需求萎缩及新增产能释放产生的影响依旧在冲击市场。而重庆整体需求有所好转。10日起多个厂家报价出现上涨。四川、云南水泥价格报价总体平稳,四川广元因需求恢复,袋装水泥价格走高,云南重点项目开工不足,企业产销不平衡,短期内价格上涨较难。

  西北地区陕西因农忙影响,市场进入淡季,水泥销量普遍下滑,部分大厂水泥价格出现下调,部分小厂处于停产状态。青海主要厂家价格也出现下行,市场总体以跌为主。其余省份需求未有明显变化,价格以低稳运行为主。

  上周,全国共有6个省份的水泥价格出现上涨,其中广西、重庆、江西涨幅居前,分别为2.46%、2.4%和1.53%,上海、湖南和广东涨幅低于1%;而水泥价格出现回落的省份有9个,其中陕西、青海两省领跌,环比分别下跌2.2%和1.68%,其余下跌省份跌幅较小,然而华东除江西外其余五省出现不同程度的回落。

图2:全国31省市上周价格环比情况(%)

数据来源:中国水泥研究院

  从价格出现变动的主要省份具体情况上看,上周,广西市场继续保持需求上涨形势,自百色地区部分厂家上涨后,上周百色地区其余厂家也跟随上涨所有袋装水泥价格20元/吨,而海螺暂未调整,南宁地区主要厂家散装水泥上调20元/吨;重庆市进入十月天气转好,需求回升,自10日拉法基、小南海价格上涨后,13日红狮、台泥、冀东、长寿西南、海螺等主要企业报价普遍上涨20元/吨左右,东方希望等少数厂家上涨10元/吨左右;江西处于传统旺季,受工程开工增加,下游需求出现明显回升影响,14日起江西南昌、抚州等地区主要水泥厂家上调各规格水泥、熟料价格20元/吨,15日宜春靠近南昌、抚州一带的丰城等地也跟随上调各规格水泥价格20元/吨。而陕西因农忙影响,需求下滑,市场逐步迈入淡季,销量普遍下降,上周冀东、声威、社会水泥继海螺之后下调价格,部分小厂甚至处于停产状态;青海西宁、海东个别品牌因需求乏力,价格出现下调。

表1:价格出现变动的主要省份及品牌情况

数据来源:中国水泥网行情数据中心

  以上为上周全国及部分地区行情的总体概况,欲了解六大区域更多细节,请查看每周区域(东北/华北/中南/华东/西南/西北)周评。

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