[水泥指数]:继续回升势头 力度有所趋缓

2014-10-15 14:13:42

上周五,中国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为101.05点,环比上涨0.36%,继水泥价格指数重上百点以后,进入十月份,指数继续保持上升势头,不过升势趋缓。与去年同期相比,水泥价格跌幅呈扩大走势,较去年同期下跌5.22%,与去年同期差距拉大。由于今年价格在四季度上涨速度和力度明显缩小,企业在下游需求未得到明显支撑的情况下涨价步伐迈的相对谨慎。

  上周五,中国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为101.05点,环比上涨0.36%,继水泥价格指数重上百点以后,进入十月份,指数继续保持上升势头,上周升势趋缓。与去年同期相比,水泥价格跌幅呈扩大走势,较去年同期下跌5.22%,与去年同期差距拉大。由于今年价格在四季度上涨速度和力度明显缩小,企业在下游需求未得到明显支撑的情况下涨价步伐迈的相对谨慎。此外,东北、西北连续的低迷趋势不改,对整体市场的影响不容小觑。上周,长江流域水泥价格指数为97.16点,环比上涨1.02%,涨幅继续领先全国水平,自8月中旬开始已连续六周呈上涨走势,上周五指数与去年同期相比下跌5.82%,不过跌幅已较前期明显缩小。

图1: 价格继续回升势头,力度有所趋缓

数据来源:中国水泥研究院

  分区域看,上周,东北地区资金紧张、项目开工不足状况仍无改观,主导企业以稳价运行为主。进入十月以后,东北天气开始转冷,下一阶段市场销售将进入最后冲刺阶段,预计价格难有改观。

  华北地区京津冀国庆期间出货下降,节后恢复常态,市场表现不温不火,价格基本保持平稳。近期,北京东南部、天津西部区域出现雾霾天气,包括水泥企业在内的数百家企业将面临停产限产,区域水泥供给会有所收缩。山西、内蒙古市场行情继续低迷,企业报价维持国庆节前水平。

  华东地区自9月26日起江浙皖沪各主要企业上调水泥价格之后,进入10月,水泥价格基本上涨到位,上周呈走稳走势。浙江区域库存相对偏高,需求略显不足,个别品牌小幅下调,不过总体而言,企业涨价意愿仍强。江苏总体价格平稳,北部因山东影响,实际未上涨到位,下一阶段欲联动涨价。安徽延续上涨走势,北部因农忙及国庆长假影响价格有所走低,不过全省仍以涨势为主。福建随着传统旺季的深入,水泥销量有所回升,上周多地价格出现上涨。上海上周低标水泥走低,高标部分品牌价格仍继续上调。其余省份价格基本以稳为主。

  中南地区两广天气晴好,需求转好,价格继续上涨。湖南民用及工程需求增加,多地价格继续上涨。湖北继国庆期间价格再次上调后,目前价格保持平稳。河南受农忙影响,下游继续疲软,短期内价格上涨仍有难度。

  西南地区贵州省受新增产能释放及需求下降双重影响,多地主导品牌价格下调。重庆部分区域需求略有上升,国庆以后水泥价格上涨。四川、云南行情变化不大。

  西北地区陕西关中价格再次下调,周边大厂跟调。汉中地区降雨较多,需求下降。甘肃也受雨水影响,地产水泥价格相继下调,此外农忙影响,平凉地区需求低迷,主要企业均有下调水泥。

  上周,全国共有8个省份的水泥价格出现上涨,其中福建、湖南、广西涨幅居前,分别为3.93%、3.78%和1.16%,重庆、上海、安徽、云南和广东涨幅低于1%;而水泥价格出现回落的省份有7个,其中贵州、甘肃两省领跌,环比分别下跌1.65%和0.95%,其余下跌省份跌幅较小,总体平稳。

图2:全国31省市上周价格环比情况(%)

数据来源:中国水泥研究院

  从价格出现变动的主要省份具体情况上看,上周,福建龙岩一带大厂对散装水泥价格上调20-30元/吨左右,同时外销泉州、漳州、厦门及广东等地价格同步上调,目前市场逐步回暖;湖南国庆后迎来下半年第三轮上涨,从长株潭、益阳、常德、张家界、娄底、邵阳一直到永州地区,主要企业水泥或熟料报价再次上调15-30元/吨不等;广西天气在十月以晴好为主,部分地区需求有所上升,国庆期间桂林地区主要企业水泥报价普遍上涨15元/吨左右,而节后,贺州及玉林一带水泥价格普遍上涨15-20元/吨左右;贵州省进入10月份需求下降,省内因新增产能影响,竞争有所加剧,国庆期间贵州遵义海螺、拉法基、赛德等主要厂家相继下调各规格水泥20元/吨左右,9日左右,安顺一带低标水泥价格再次走低20元/吨左右,低标袋装出厂已低至200元/吨左右。

表1:价格出现变动的主要省份及品牌情况

数据来源:中国水泥网行情数据中心

  以上为上周全国及部分地区行情的总体概况,欲了解六大区域更多细节,请查看每周区域(东北/华北/中南/华东/西南/西北)周评。

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