[价格指数]:指数重上百点 长三角行情扬帆起航

2014-09-29 16:33:22

上周日,中国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为100.46点,环比上涨0.79%,自7月中旬以后,CEMPI连续两个月落于100点以下,经过一个月左右的底部调整,指数于上周重回100点以上。长江流域水泥价格指数(YRCPI)上周继续回升,回升幅度大幅扩大,长三角地区价格领涨长江流域,区域行情开始扬帆起航。

  上周日,中国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)为100.46点,环比上涨0.79%,自7月中旬以后,CEMPI连续两个月落于100点以下,经过一个月左右的底部调整,指数于上周重回100点以上。与去年同期相比,价格虽仍下跌4.69%,但跌幅较上期明显缩小。此轮价格上涨,主要得益于华东及中南地区价格普涨。上周,长江流域水泥价格指数(YRCPI)继续回升,回升幅度大幅扩大,本次涨幅是自8月底价格上涨以来单周涨幅最大的一次,环比上涨达2.05%,长三角地区价格领涨长江流域,区域行情开始扬帆起航。截止9月26日,YRCPI已经连续五周上涨,累计涨幅已经达到2.62%。

图1: 上周,长江流域价格指数大幅上涨

数据来源:中国水泥研究院

  分区域看,上周东北地区水泥价格依旧平稳,仍无上涨迹象,受下游需求无改善、资金偏紧影响,主导企业以稳价为主。下一阶段,随着天气的转冷,需求将有所萎缩,短期内价格上涨可能性较小。

  华北京津冀地区市场弱势运行,需求恢复不理想,价格继续走稳,河北唐山一带受外围熟料价格上涨影响,水泥报价有所上涨,对外销量增加,但区域内部价格除邯郸市主要品牌价格下调外基本无变化。山西、内蒙古市场行情继续低迷,价格低位徘徊无上涨动力。

  华东地区26日开始江浙皖沪四省多个企业联合涨价,本轮涨价是自前期熟料价格上涨以来对水泥价格调整范围最大的一次。受天气好转,市场进入传统旺季刺激,多数厂家涨价欲望强烈,未来几日预计中小企业也要持续跟调。福建因天气好转,主导企业相继上调水泥价格,但因商混受闽江采砂整治影响销量走低,水泥出货也相应走低,实际成交不及预期,后续有待进一步观察。山东地区水泥、熟料库存普遍较高,为稳定市场价格,部分企业报价有所走低。江西受周边省份涨价带动,多地水泥价格纷纷上涨,若国庆之后需求继续向好,价格有望进一步上涨。

  中南地区两广需求开始回升,台风过后企业销量恢复,主要企业价格均有所上调。两湖市场天气好转,随着旺季的深入企业出货量明显增加,来自民用和工程的需求量进入上行通道,湖南永州、衡阳及湖北武汉主要企业水泥价格出现上涨。而河南、海南两省水泥价格暂稳,河南尚无上涨迹象,企业出货仍不理想。

  西南地区贵州因贵阳、安顺一带水泥价格走低,上周黔南主要厂家报价也出现走低,走低以袋装水泥为主。重庆天气开始好转,需求出现回升,主城区价格小幅上涨,近期企业仍有上调意向。四川上周行情未有起色,尽管需求有所回升但与去年水平相去甚远,价格依旧低位徘徊,随着旺季深入预计十月有涨价计划。云南部分厂家水泥价格走低,多数企业以稳为主。

  西北各省水泥价格总体平稳,陕西雨水有所减少,企业出货略有上升,但价格未有上涨趋势。甘肃需求没有改善迹象,个别企业袋装报价小幅走低。宁夏、甘肃价格继续平稳运行,宁夏地区市场竞争激烈。新疆水泥市场即将进入淡季,近期当地发布了《关于实行水泥错峰生产有关要求的通知》,通知要求新疆所有水泥企业自今年11月开始连续停窑三个月,目前价格暂稳。

  上周,全国共有11个省份的水泥价格出现上涨,其中江西、浙江、江苏涨幅居前,分别为4.09%、 3.89%和2.18%,上海、福建、两湖、两广涨幅也超过1%。这次价格变动主要集中于华东及中南地区,其余省份大稳小动,如部分北方省份仍有小幅下降,不过降幅不大。

图2:全国31省市上周价格环比情况(%)

数据来源:中国水泥研究院

  从价格出现变动的主要省份具体情况上看,上周,江西在沿江水泥、熟料价格上涨带动下,27日起北部九江、南昌、抚州及赣东北景德镇、上饶、鹰潭等地海螺、南方、万年青、亚东、青溪峰等各地主要厂家继续趁势上涨,水泥报价普遍上调30元/吨,目前其余厂家也相继跟涨;浙江26日起南方水泥、熟料价格普遍上涨20-30元/吨,受此影响,全省除宁波、舟山、台州、温州等沿海一带因销量不理想未有上调来外,杭嘉湖及金建兰衢主要厂家相继上调各规格水泥或熟料价格20-~30元/吨;26日起,江苏南部苏锡常一带家南方、天山、金峰、东吴等大厂再次上调水泥价格,其中无锡、常州一带,扬州、泰州一带普遍上调低标10元/吨、高标30元/吨,无锡一带各规格水泥上涨20元/吨,而南京地区海螺中联虽有上涨但其余厂家处于观望状态,苏北需求略有不足,宿迁中联、淮安海螺及山东山水等主要厂家普遍上调各规格水泥10元/吨。

表1:价格出现变动的主要省份及品牌情况

数据来源:中国水泥网行情数据中心

  以上为上周全国及部分地区行情的总体概况,欲了解六大区域更多细节,请查看每周区域(东北/华北/中南/华东/西南/西北)周评。

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