On July 22, Yan Dazhou, Supervisor/Director of China Photovoltaic Industry Association /National Engineering Laboratory of Polysilicon Material Preparation Technology, made a keynote report on "Polysilicon Market Supply and Industrial Development" at the "2026 Photovoltaic Industry Supply Chain Development (Ningbo) Seminar".
The report shows that in 2025, there are 28 polysilicon producers in the world, with an effective capacity of 3.65 million tons per year , an increase of 7.5% over the same period last year; The global polysilicon output was 1.485 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 24.1%, of which solar grade bulk silicon was about 1.161 million tons and granular silicon was about 269,000 tons, accounting for 78.2% and 18.1% of the total global polysilicon output, respectively. In the first half
of 2026, China's polysilicon production was about 541000 tons , down 9.3% from the same period last year. The average operating rate of polysilicon enterprises is 33.8% . As of June, the total domestic polysilicon inventory was about 510 thousand tons , equivalent to nearly half a year's output. Yan Dazhou is expected to produce 102,000 tons in July.
Looking forward to the whole year of 2026, Yan Dazhou predicts that there will be 16 enterprises producing polysilicon in the world, with a total capacity of about 3.658 million tons. In terms of production, global polysilicon production is expected to be 1.37 million tons this year, a decrease of 7.7% over the same period last year. Among them, solar grade bulk silicon is about 1.061 million tons and granular silicon is about 250000 tons, accounting for 72.3% and 23.4% of the total global polysilicon production, respectively. Among them, there are 11 enterprises in China, with a total capacity of 3.5 million tons per year, and the annual output is expected to be about 1.25 million tons , down about 8.5% from the same period last year . In terms of
domestic supply, it is estimated that about 1.75 million tons (including electronic grade) will be supplied this year, of which about 1.25 million tons will be self-produced, and the annual inventory will be about 500,000 tons. On
the downstream demand side, Yan Dazhou expects to produce 580 GW of silicon wafers and consume about 1.45 million tons of polysilicon in 2026. It is estimated that the effective capacity will be 1200 GW by the end of 2026, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 48.3%.
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