First of all, a common sense, in all kinds of construction projects, the total demand for aggregate is six times that of cement!
Aggregate, originally the river sand and pebbles in the river, is widely distributed in our country, and the reserves are very large. For many years, there is always a feeling of inexhaustible supply. However, with the rapid development of China's infrastructure and real estate in the past two or three decades, its consumption rate is also very fast, the sand in the river has become less and less, and it is very difficult to get sand in some places. The damage to the ecological environment caused by long-term sand mining in rivers is becoming more and more serious. Therefore, from the perspective of natural environment protection, more and more rivers have banned sand mining, followed by a shortage of sand supply, prices have risen sharply, and now the market basically sells more than 100 yuan/ton of river sand. In such an environment, aggregate, a substitute for sand and gravel, has begun to be used on a large scale.
Aggregate is made of natural ores, such as limestone, basalt, granite, etc., which are processed into particles of a certain shape and size by professional crushing machines as fillers in concrete. In the past, due to the extensive use of river sand, the use of aggregate was very small, the demand for aggregate mines was also very small, and the price of mine acquisition was very low, generally a few cents to a few yuan a ton. In recent years, due to the large-scale application of aggregates, the demand for mines has increased substantially, and the price of mining rights has also risen substantially. In economically underdeveloped areas, it generally rises to a few yuan per ton. In economically developed areas such as the Yangtze River Delta, some places far away from the market cost 10-20 yuan per ton, and 30-40 yuan per ton is also common near the market. Because the demand for aggregate is about six times that of cement, if sand mining is completely banned in rivers, the consumption rate of aggregate mines will be about six times that of cement mines. The annual demand for cement is 2 billion tons, and the matching demand for aggregate is 12 billion tons. Even if some people think that the demand for cement will be cut in half in the future, the consumption of aggregate will be more than 6 billion tons per year. Such a huge demand determines that aggregate will be more dependent on mines than cement.
The reality is that due to the low price of cement in the past two years , most cement companies do not make money, or even operate at a loss. In order to survive, some enterprises that lose money in cement business produce aggregates by utilizing the resources of limestone mines in existing cement plants. By increasing the production and sales of aggregates to increase profits and make up for losses, this speeds up the consumption of limestone mine resources in these enterprises. When the mine resources of these enterprises are exhausted and there are no limestone resources, the cement and aggregate production lines will become a pile of scrap iron, which will naturally be eliminated and withdrawn from the market.
Because the aggregate is a low-value product, the production cost is 20-30 yuan/ton (excluding the price of mining rights), the ex-factory price is 50-60 yuan/ton, and the price to the construction site is 80-90 yuan/ton. It is not suitable for long-distance transportation. Its land economic transportation radius is about 50 kilometers (the land economic transportation radius of cement is about 200 kilometers), and the waterway transportation radius is about 1000 kilometers. Therefore, the geographical location of aggregate mines is very important. Some places far away from the market are rich in resources, but they can not make money at all. Few people invest in mining, and there are not necessarily mining resources near the market, so it is easy to form regional monopoly for aggregate enterprises with mines around the demand market. This is a good explanation for Conch Cement's purchase of large mines around the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta at a high price of 20-30 yuan/ton in the past two years. Its products are tens of kilometers closer to the market than many cement companies, and its transportation costs are much lower. This is also a preparation for the future regional monopoly market.
Aggregate production base, in addition to considering mine reserves, cost and distance from the market, its production line capacity scale is also very important, the scale is too small, all kinds of public supporting cost sharing will be high, which is not conducive to reducing costs (low-value prod ucts are very sensitive to cost), the scale is too large, and it can not digest production capacity in the scope of economic transportation. Need to spend more transportation costs to expand the scope of sales, its profitability will gradually decline with the increase of transportation distance, and even part of the production capacity will become long-term shutdown of ineffective production capacity. For example, some companies have set up some 50 million tons/year, or even 100 million tons/year production base, production capacity seems scary, in fact, 30 million tons of production capacity can make money. Under normal circumstances, the base for road transportation should be 2-3 million tons, and the maximum is not more than 5 million tons. Close to the Yangtze River, there are wharfs, which can be transported by water, 10 million to 2 million tons per year is better, and the maximum is not more than 30 million tons per year. These capacity restrictions also determine that aggregates are easier to form regional monopoly. It is not that you have mines and production capacity, you can produce indefinitely and sell indefinitely.
Cement industry has serious overcapacity, the impact of peak staggering production on the supply side has declined significantly, the "competition and cooperation relationship" formed over the years has broken down, and the pressure of industry operation has doubled. How should the cement industry get out of the predicament and face the new cycle?
On March 28-29, China Cement Network will hold the " 13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony " in Hangzhou, during which awards will be given to top 100 cement and supplier enterprises, and experts and scholars will be invited. China Railway and other construction units jointly discuss the new development trend of the cement industry in the future, and work together to create the future!
