Recently, at the "Cement Economy 50 Forum" sponsored by China Cement Network, many industry leaders pointed out that the downward trend of cement demand can not be reversed, and after ten years, China's cement demand will probably decline to about 1 billion tons.
So, is this data reliable? From the overall trend of
1、,
according to the experience of cement demand in developed countries, the cumulative per capita cement consumption of 22 tons is the demand inflection point, that is, when the cumulative amount exceeds this level, the regional cement demand will decline.
Data show that the cumulative per capita cement consumption in China from 1981 to 2015 is 22.29 tons, exceeding the critical value of 22 tons for the first time. At the same time, China's cement output in 2014 was 2.48 billion tons, and the per capita cement consumption was about 1.82 tons, which was the historical peak. Since 2015, the per capita cement consumption has gradually declined, and the current per capita cement consumption is still about 1.4 tons.
Referring to Japan's annual decline of about 4.2% from the peak of cement demand to the low platform of demand, China's cement demand will drop to about 1 billion tons in 2034.
2、
refers to developed countries such as Europe, the United States and Japan from the perspective of per capita consumption. After experiencing the peak demand for cement, the annual per capita consumption of cement has decreased to 500-700 kg. In view of China's vast land area and great potential for infrastructure construction, it is roughly estimated that China's per capita cement consumption may drop to 700-800 kg in the future.
Ten years later, the demand for cement in China will drop to 91-1.04 billion tons based on the national population of 1.3 billion.
Generally speaking, after ten years, it is not groundless to say that China's cement demand will probably decline to about 1 billion tons. Although China is a big country in infrastructure construction, the demand for cement is larger than that of many countries, but with the transformation of China's economic structure, the downward trend of cement demand is inevitable.
