As one of the important pillar industries of the national economy, the development and prosperity of the real estate industry has a significant pulling effect on the demand for cement.
In recent years, the continuous downturn of the real estate industry has weakened the demand for cement, and cement enterprises are facing great pressure and challenges. What will happen to the real estate industry in 2024? What impact will it bring to the cement industry?
"The real estate market is generally in a state of contraction this year." Yang Kewei, deputy general manager of Kerui Research Center, told China Cement Network that the contraction of the real estate market has brought direct pressure to the cement industry.
According to Yang Kewei's forecast, the sales area of commercial housing this year is expected to decline by 5% -10% year-on-year, the new construction area by 15% -20% year-on-year, and the completed area is expected to increase by 5% -10% year-on-year, totaling about 1 billion square meters . Although the growth of completed area means that the project construction accumulated in the early stage is gradually transformed into physical supply, it is still unable to compensate for the decline in cement demand caused by the decline in new construction area.
However, Yang Kewei also pointed out in the exchange that the cement industry can capture a turning point in adversity:
First, the transformation of villages in the city. As an important link in the process of urbanization, the reconstruction of urban villages will give birth to a large number of old demolition and new construction projects, which have a stable demand for cement and other building materials.
Second, the construction of affordable housing. In recent years, the state's support for affordable housing has been increasing, and such projects often have strong policy guarantees and financial support, and their steady implementation will support the demand for cement.
Third, the construction of infrastructure such as underground comprehensive pipe galleries. Considering the strategic significance of the underground comprehensive pipeline corridor for the long-term development of the city, its rigid demand for cement will become an important supplement to the industry demand.
To sum up, although the contraction of the scale and development speed of the real estate market has brought severe challenges to the cement industry, the potential in the fields of urban village reconstruction, affordable housing construction and infrastructure construction has provided new development space for the cement industry. In the
long run, what kind of development trend will the real estate industry present? What impact will it have on the cement industry? On March 28-29, China Cement Network will hold the " 13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony " in Hangzhou. The conference will conduct in-depth analysis and discussion from the aspects of supply, demand, macro-economy, technological progress and industrial upgrading, so as to push the cement industry out of the predicament. Face the new cycle bravely. During the conference, Yang Kewei will give a wonderful speech on the theme of "Current Situation and Future Development of the Real Estate Industry". Please pay attention.
