市场旺季不旺!全国水泥价格跌幅扩大!个别地区价格推涨

2023-05-15 09:47:38

当前下游需求羸弱,加之阴雨天气频发,预计本周水泥价格将延续弱势运行态势。

周五(5月12日),全国水泥价格指数(CEMPI)报收132.55点,环比下跌1.81%,同比下跌19.89%。

五一小长假后全国市场需求表现仍不理想,企业库存高位承压,市场竞争加剧,全国水泥价格跌幅扩大;南方地区项目开工较差,市场需求走弱,区域竞争激烈;北方地区需求比较一般,市场偏稳运行。

分区域看,本周六大区域南跌北稳。华东地区库存高位承压,水泥价格下跌3.15%;中南地区需求疲软,水泥价格较上周下跌1.74%;西南地区雨水天气较多,价格下跌1.25%;华北、东北和西北地区平稳运行,水泥价格较上周没有变化。

表1:六大区域水泥价格指数变化

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

华东地区

上海:需求表现一般,外来低价水泥冲击不断,8日下调各品种水泥价格20元/吨左右。

江苏:五一小长假加之雨水天气影响,终端市场需求偏弱运行,3-9日江苏南京、镇江、南通及苏锡常等地下调水泥价格15-30元/吨,苏中地区高标散装小幅暗降10元/吨左右,其余品种下调20-40元/吨

浙江:市场需求偏弱运行,库存高位承压,月初以来水泥价格连降两轮,累计降幅30-40元/吨。

安徽:市场需求旺季不旺,马鞍山、芜湖、黄山、宣城以及淮北等地区下调水泥价格10-20元/吨,宣城地区连续下调两轮,累计降幅30-35元/吨

福建:终端市场需求疲软,一些企业停窑执行不到位,月初福州、宁德、三明等地水泥价格下滑10-20元/吨,10日前后闽南地区跟进下调10-15元/吨

山东:受错峰带动,10日山东地区上调水泥及熟料价格20-30元/吨,目前仅鲁南地区小幅上调10元/吨左右。

江西:整体市场需求偏弱,近期九江及周边南昌、赣州市场走低15-20元/吨

中南地区

湖南、湖北:两湖地区阴雨天气较多,市场需求销量低迷,湖南岳阳、娄邵、长株潭等地水泥价格走低20-30元/吨,湖北武汉及鄂东地区小幅下调水泥价格10-20元/吨

广东、广西:两广地区市场需求疲软,销量较差,8-9日粤东及珠三角地区下调水泥价格15-20元/吨,广西北防钦、桂林等市场水泥价格松动下滑20元/吨左右。

河南:多地工地及搅拌站开工受限,市场需求表现疲软,4月底一些主要厂家推动上调水泥价格30元/吨后本月陆续出现回落。

西南地区

四川、重庆:阴雨天气影响,川渝地区市场需求下滑,企业出货减少,库位上升,上旬四川成德绵、南充、遂宁、广安等地水泥价格下调20元/吨左右,重庆主城及渝西地区下调水泥价格20-30元/吨。

贵州:二季度错峰停窑,市场供应减少,上旬贵州地区上调水泥价格30元/吨,多数企业落实在10-20元/吨

云南:能耗双控及限电等因素影响,水泥生产受限,10-11日云南普洱、西双版纳上调水泥价格20元/吨,落实情况有待观察。

华北地区

河北:中南地区停窑执行情况不达预期,一些企业库存仍在高位,月初企业尝试推动上调水泥价格30元/吨以失败告终,市场弱势运行。

北京、天津:京津两地市场目前保持平稳,水泥需求环比无明显变动,价格继续低位走稳。

山西:房地产市场需求较差,加之区域一些企业停窑已结束,库存高位运行,月初太原、晋中等地下调水泥价格20-30元/吨。

内蒙古:市场需求不佳,近期内蒙古赤峰、呼和浩特等地下调水泥价格20-40元/吨不等。

西北地区

陕西:受资金、天气等因素影响,陕西地区市场需求疲软,关中地区下调低标袋装水泥价格30元/吨左右。

甘肃:近期雨水天气多发,甘肃市场需求恢复受限,上旬以来嘉峪关、酒泉地区下调水泥价格30元/吨左右,平凉地区实际成交价格下滑10-20元/吨不等。

新疆:节后需求一般,新疆乌鲁木齐小幅回落10-20元/吨

青海、宁夏:水泥市场起伏不大,价格以稳为主。

东北地区

辽宁大连、辽中地区市场需求走弱,区域内水泥成交价下行,吉林和黑龙江整体需求销量环比基本持稳,水泥价格平稳运行。

后市预测:当前下游需求羸弱,加之阴雨天气频发,预计本周水泥价格将延续弱势运行态势。

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Correlation

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