需求不及预期,二三季度陕西水泥市场不乐观

2023-05-10 15:31:31

“我们现阶段就是以保市场为主。”

“大家一开始信心感十足,各方面预期都很高,但是没想到3月份后情况发生了变化。”陕西一水泥企业负责人表示。  

今年一季度,疫情因素消退,下游复工情况良好,众多重大项目开工建设,一季度整体需求好于同期,水泥产量增加,价格出现一定幅度反弹。陕西多家水泥企业均表示对于一季度的市场行情充满信心,但3月份过后,陕西地区的市场变化却令人措手不及。  

市场不及预期,销量下滑严重  

对于一季度陕西地区水泥市场运行情况,中国水泥网在与当地多家水泥企业交流中了解,一季度陕西关中地区多数工程开工情况较好,主要企业出货量相对稳中有升,整体市场需求在6成左右。  

而价格方面,三月推涨后,各厂实际执行幅度不一,近期市场价格稳定为主,各企业报价暂无明显变化。  

“现在大家定价都十分谨慎,市场需求太疲软了,生怕价格太高,把客户吓跑了!”  

“从3月份开始价格就没有怎么变过了,期间试着涨过两次价,但都没涨起来,依旧维持原来价格。”  

“我们现阶段就是以保市场为主。”  

……  

据了解,今年3-4月份陕西地区水泥需求出现下滑,企业出货量下降。“我们4月份销量下滑了15%左右,5月份可能会更惨。”当地一水泥企业负责人告诉中国水泥网。  

数据显示,今年3月份陕西省房地产新开工面积累计同比下降7.99%。“房地产下滑太严重了。目前只有西安市场在西北五省中有一定的‘虹吸效应’,但感觉也维持不久。”业内人士表示。  

除此之外,今年4月底,陕西省政府介绍了2023年一季度陕西省国民经济运行情况。其中,基础设施投资同比增长了8.5%。基础建设工程具有体量大、工期周期长的特点,尽管基建投资增加,但落实周期长,目前对于水泥需求的拉动作用有限。  

关于接下来陕西地区市场发展态势,业内人士预测:“陕西地区二季度水泥市场希望不大,三季度感觉也不会特别好,大概到8月份会出现一个小的恢复期。”  

高集中度,弱协同的陕西市场  

近日,四川、内蒙古、新疆、河北等地水泥协会相继发布错峰生产相关通知。例如,四川省水泥协会发布《四川省水泥行业常态化错峰生产管理办法》提出,全省89家全能线水泥企业109条水泥熟料生产线全部实行错峰生产。  

据中国水泥网了解,陕西地区除采暖季外,其余时间的错峰停窑主要是企业自主错峰。“预计今年关中地区水泥企业错峰停窑时间在160天左右。”当地一水泥企业表示。对于错峰停窑,陕西多家水泥企业持积极的态度,尤其在市场行情低迷时期,错峰停窑成为企业度过当前难关的方法之一。  

中国水泥网大数据中心数据显示,陕西地区熟料年产能排名前五的企业占比达到87.5%,市场集中度较高,但产能依旧过剩严重。据了解,陕西市场主要分为陕南、陕北、关中三个地区。三个地区因经济发展不平衡,导致其产能过剩程度也不平衡。陕南地区产能利用率相对较高,达到70%多;关东地区产能利用率相对较低,只有50%-60%;陕北地区产能利用率最低。 

 

面对当前严峻的市场需求和产能过剩情况,当地水泥企业也是叫苦连天。“我们3月10日错峰结束,开始正式生产,但到4月24日就因为库满,被迫停窑了。”一水泥企业负责人无奈道。  

当前陕西地区多数企业根据自家企业当前情况和往年经验安排错峰停窑。据中国水泥网了解,5月-7月期间,陕西地区企业生产线停窑时间在20-40天不等。  

面对当前恶劣的市场环境,当地水泥企业呼吁,希望大家可以“抱团取暖”,加强自律意识,不要恶意低价竞争,扰乱市场秩序。  


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Correlation

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