上半年云南水泥行业企业亏损面较大 为近五年来之最!全年行情如何挽救?

2022-08-02 09:44:52

由于需求不好、水泥生产成本增加、价格下跌严重,全省大部分水泥企业效益都不太乐观。

7月26日,中国水泥网总经理江勋一行前往云南调研当地市场,与云南西南水泥党委副书记、副总裁张木林进行了交流。

在交流中获悉,今年上半年云南水泥供需失衡较为严重,云南水泥企业开机率仅在50%左右,水泥均价同比下降38%,云南水泥行业企业亏损面较大,为近五年来之最。

云南西南水泥党委副书记、副总裁张木林与中国水泥网总经理江勋围绕云南水泥企业的分布进行交流。

具体来看:

供需失衡,上半年水泥企业开机率50%

供给端,当前云南水泥产能在1.5-1.6亿吨,而水泥需求量维持在1亿吨左右,产能过剩40%以上,形势严峻。尤其是位于滇中的玉溪水泥产能大于当地需求,三分之二的水泥外溢至周边,属于典型的输出型市场。

需求方面,2022年上半年云南水泥产量4592.06万吨,同比下降24.75%。据了解,今年上半年云南水泥需求较差的原因除了受疫情影响,主要还是当地房地产和民用市场需求大幅萎缩,一些重点工程项目资金运转不到位。据了解,部分企业水泥需求量同比下滑了超50%。

由于产能过剩严重加之上半年云南水泥需求疲弱,当地水泥企业开始加大错峰生产力度。去年年底,云南省工信厅和云南省生态环境厅联合发文,要求每条水泥熟料生产线年均错峰生产天数基数100天。根据交流得知,上半年云南全省每条熟料线平均停产天数为93天。

其中,华新水泥每条窑平均停产83天,红狮水泥每条窑平均停91天,云南西南水泥、云南水泥建材集团熟料生产线停窑时长达到了117天,海螺水泥停窑118天。整个上半年开机率甚至不到50%。且当前水泥库存依然处于高位。根据中国水泥网长期监测的数据来看,截止到7月22日,云南水泥库容比为75%。

价格下滑加之成本上升,水泥企业亏损面较大

价格行情方面,据中国水泥网行情大数据长期跟踪,今年以来,云南水泥价格除了4月份由于供给短时受限,加之成本上涨,水泥价格短暂小幅上调,其余皆为下跌。在交流中得知,今年上半年除了位于滇东北的昭通、滇西北的迪庆等地水泥价格韧性较强外,滇中昆明等地市场竞争激烈,价格下滑幅度更大。

与此同时,高企的煤炭价格更增加了水泥企业的生产成本。当前云南水泥企业的煤价大概在1300-1400元/吨,虽然最高位已经过去,但煤炭价格将很难降下来。

故而,上半年云南水泥行业虽然增加了错峰时间减少了供给量,但整个市场由于需求不好、水泥生产成本增加、价格下跌严重,全省大部分水泥企业效益都不太乐观。

对于下半年市场情况,当地业内人士认为下半年水泥需求肯定会好于上半年,不过全年来看全省水泥需求量或同比下降超两位数。

张木林表示,在需求下行压力加大的境况下,化解过剩产能、改善供给端或是当前行业的主要出路。据了解,云南接下来的三、四季度或将延长错峰停窑时间,下半年要求停窑70天。按照该要求,部分水泥企业全年停窑时长将超过180天。

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Correlation

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2024-11-08 17:41:17

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China Cement Net Market Data Center News: Raw Materials Rise, Concrete Prices in Southwest China May Be Raised

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2024-10-25 17:29:24

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