华东多地涨价 库位回落 带头大哥能否引领行业“雄起”?

2022-07-29 10:11:37

8月初或许会迎来拐点,拐点出现可能意味着供需关系好转的临近。

7月11日起安徽沿江地区一些主要厂家开始通知上调熟料价格20元/吨左右,周边江浙市场同步跟进。

22日-23日起江苏苏锡常及南京、徐州地区一些企业开始通知上调水泥价格20-30元/吨左右。

23日-24日起浙江省内一些主导企业通知对全省推动上调水泥价格20-30元/吨。

26日起安徽马鞍山地区主要厂家通知上调散装水泥价格20元/吨,袋装价格暂稳。

华东地区多地涨价,库位回落,带头大哥能否引领行业雄起?

中国水泥网水泥大数据研究院对接下来华东地区行情走势的判断如下:

中国水泥网数据显示,自6月中旬以来,华东地区熟料库位持续下滑,目前降至六成左右,同比去年同期基本持平。

华东熟料库容比持续下滑

华东整体发运率也快速提升,目前已升至六成以上,长三角整体在七成左右,华东地区整体水泥库位也回落到了七成以下。

可以看出,无论是水泥的库位、还是熟料的库位,均出现了下降,华东总体形势向好。

华东水泥库容比出现下降

华东地区的水泥需求占了全国的三分之一,三分天下有其一。

可以说是全国水泥行业的带头大哥。

华东市场差,那全国难好。当前华东库位的回落,对于水泥价格的止跌上涨起了非常关键的作用。

首先,从熟料价格看,7月中旬,华东沿江熟料开始上半年的首轮提涨,幅度20,涨完价格在360-370元/吨。

近期熟料库存的继续回落,加上企业的停窑,我们认为熟料价格第二轮涨价节点在7月低8月初大概率会提升日程。

其次,华东地区熟料价格上调之后,部分外围熟料流入华东,目前总体风险可控。

外来熟料往年以东北、海外进口居多。

今年从海外进口熟料来看,上半年全国共进口熟料741.18万吨,6月同比下滑96%,其中进口活动主要是在一季度,占了整个上半年熟料进口量的71%,4月、5月、6月进口熟料逐月减少,尤其是六月份,进口熟料仅6.7万吨,这样一个进口量基本是贸易商绝迹了,进口活动进入冰点。短期内要恢复是不现实的。

北方熟料方面,主要以辽宁为主,一方面是价差缩小了,另外物流存在一定的问题,近期东北地区计划执行停窑。

综合来看,外部熟料冲击较为有限。随着熟料库位的进一步回落,熟料价格有望进一步上涨。

那么熟料上涨是否意味着水泥涨价来临?

今年下半年的熟料提价较去年提前,需求不振,导致此前价格跌幅过大。

跌完后我们当时在7月初判断熟料价格见底,部分实际价格已经贴着成本线在运行。

所以需求、库位数据略有改善, 熟料价格就有向上的动力。

但是从水泥价格来看,往年熟料涨完,一般1-2周内水泥价格就会启动。今年尽管个别地区有所上调,但并没有看到第一轮普涨行情到来。甚至像安徽还在进一步下跌。主要原因高温需求复苏慢是一方面,水泥库位持续高位运行也是重要原因。而上周水泥库位的回落,我们认为对水泥涨价将十分有利。

8月初或许会迎来拐点,拐点出现可能意味着供需关系好转的临近。

All can be viewed after purchase
Correlation

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