华东多地涨价 库位回落 带头大哥能否引领行业“雄起”?

2022-07-29 10:11:37

8月初或许会迎来拐点,拐点出现可能意味着供需关系好转的临近。

7月11日起安徽沿江地区一些主要厂家开始通知上调熟料价格20元/吨左右,周边江浙市场同步跟进。

22日-23日起江苏苏锡常及南京、徐州地区一些企业开始通知上调水泥价格20-30元/吨左右。

23日-24日起浙江省内一些主导企业通知对全省推动上调水泥价格20-30元/吨。

26日起安徽马鞍山地区主要厂家通知上调散装水泥价格20元/吨,袋装价格暂稳。

华东地区多地涨价,库位回落,带头大哥能否引领行业雄起?

中国水泥网水泥大数据研究院对接下来华东地区行情走势的判断如下:

中国水泥网数据显示,自6月中旬以来,华东地区熟料库位持续下滑,目前降至六成左右,同比去年同期基本持平。

华东熟料库容比持续下滑

华东整体发运率也快速提升,目前已升至六成以上,长三角整体在七成左右,华东地区整体水泥库位也回落到了七成以下。

可以看出,无论是水泥的库位、还是熟料的库位,均出现了下降,华东总体形势向好。

华东水泥库容比出现下降

华东地区的水泥需求占了全国的三分之一,三分天下有其一。

可以说是全国水泥行业的带头大哥。

华东市场差,那全国难好。当前华东库位的回落,对于水泥价格的止跌上涨起了非常关键的作用。

首先,从熟料价格看,7月中旬,华东沿江熟料开始上半年的首轮提涨,幅度20,涨完价格在360-370元/吨。

近期熟料库存的继续回落,加上企业的停窑,我们认为熟料价格第二轮涨价节点在7月低8月初大概率会提升日程。

其次,华东地区熟料价格上调之后,部分外围熟料流入华东,目前总体风险可控。

外来熟料往年以东北、海外进口居多。

今年从海外进口熟料来看,上半年全国共进口熟料741.18万吨,6月同比下滑96%,其中进口活动主要是在一季度,占了整个上半年熟料进口量的71%,4月、5月、6月进口熟料逐月减少,尤其是六月份,进口熟料仅6.7万吨,这样一个进口量基本是贸易商绝迹了,进口活动进入冰点。短期内要恢复是不现实的。

北方熟料方面,主要以辽宁为主,一方面是价差缩小了,另外物流存在一定的问题,近期东北地区计划执行停窑。

综合来看,外部熟料冲击较为有限。随着熟料库位的进一步回落,熟料价格有望进一步上涨。

那么熟料上涨是否意味着水泥涨价来临?

今年下半年的熟料提价较去年提前,需求不振,导致此前价格跌幅过大。

跌完后我们当时在7月初判断熟料价格见底,部分实际价格已经贴着成本线在运行。

所以需求、库位数据略有改善, 熟料价格就有向上的动力。

但是从水泥价格来看,往年熟料涨完,一般1-2周内水泥价格就会启动。今年尽管个别地区有所上调,但并没有看到第一轮普涨行情到来。甚至像安徽还在进一步下跌。主要原因高温需求复苏慢是一方面,水泥库位持续高位运行也是重要原因。而上周水泥库位的回落,我们认为对水泥涨价将十分有利。

8月初或许会迎来拐点,拐点出现可能意味着供需关系好转的临近。

All can be viewed after purchase
Correlation

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of the early push up in the central and southern regions is not up to expectations. During the week, cement prices in many places in Guangdong generally began a new round of increase, and the quotation in Guangxi was stable and small. This week, the implementation of the push up in Hunan and Hubei is not ideal.

2024-11-22 17:30:12

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern China rose by about 20-30 yuan/ton in a large area this week, while those in Guangxi were temporarily stable after the rise. This week, the price of cement in Hunan was pushed up again, and the price of cement in eastern Hubei was planned to be raised again by about 30 yuan/ton in order to restore the previous target.

2024-11-15 17:36:48

Enterprises in Hunan plan to raise the price of cement by 50 yuan/ton in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan, Chenzhou and other places from the 15th, and the implementation remains to be observed..

2024-11-14 14:20:40

On the 13th, some major enterprises in Ningxia took the lead in notifying the increase of cement price by 10 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-11-13 15:18:11

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

2024-11-08 17:27:44

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern China rose steadily this week, pushing up 30-50 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and some low-priced enterprises reported an increase of 70 yuan/ton. This week, cement prices in eastern Hubei have gradually fallen back to the level before the last round of rise, and cement prices in many places in Hunan continue to rise.

2024-11-08 17:23:08

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in Chongqing in the southwest region is pushed up by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the implementation is to be observed; the price in Zhaotong in Yunnan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation is to be observed; the price in Nanchong, Guang'an and Suining in Sichuan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the price in Yibin and Luzhou is partially dropped.

2024-11-08 17:19:35

In October, with the gradual decline of the national temperature, the northern project came to an end, and there was a small-scale rush to work in some areas, while the southern construction activities increased, the demand warmed up, and the shipment volume increased slightly. On the supply side, a number of sand and gravel aggregate projects have been successfully put into operation, production capacity has been released rapidly, sand and gravel prices have stopped falling slightly, and have entered a narrow range of volatility.

2024-11-05 11:42:36

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

Some major manufacturers in Fujian plan to raise the price of various types of cement by about 30 yuan/ton again from November 1, and the implementation situation remains to be seen.

2024-10-31 13:40:09

Real estate is one of the major downstream markets for sand and gravel aggregates. Since 2021, the real estate market has been declining, resulting in a sharp decline in demand for sand and gravel aggregates for real estate. Recently, the favorable policies of real estate are frequent, whether it can drive the demand for sand and gravel aggregates to stop falling and stabilize..

2024-10-29 15:13:46

Recently, the construction in the south is relatively active, the local market demand is warming up, coupled with the increasing pressure on the cost side, the market price trend is stable and small. From October 17 to October 23, the national concrete price index closed at 112.14 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.65% year-on-year.

2024-10-25 17:29:24

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the Pearl River Delta in central and southern Guangdong is planning to continue to push up cement prices by 30-50 yuan/ton around the end of the month, and the Guangxi region is temporarily stable. Cement prices in Hunan and Hubei continued to rise by 30-50 yuan/ton.

2024-10-25 17:23:23

The pressure of market competition in East China is greater, and the rise in concrete prices is fatigue..

2024-10-25 16:49:34

On the 23rd, some enterprises in Fujian again notified Xiamen, Zhangzhou and Longyan to raise the cement price by 10 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-10-23 13:45:24

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the demand in Sichuan and Chongqing in Southwest China has improved, and the cement price has been steadily promoted; the price increase in Yunnan and Guizhou may be blocked. It is understood that the fourth quarter of Yunnan plans to implement peak staggering production for 51-60 days, affected by the policy, the output of enterprises in the region has declined, and the inventory has declined slightly.

2024-10-18 17:38:28

According to the data center of China Cement Market, cement prices in many places in East China continue to rise, and prices in some areas show signs of falling, and the specific situation needs to be tracked. For example, cement prices in Jiangxi are basically stable this week. Since the 8th, all parts of Jiangxi have been notified to push up the cement price by 20-30 yuan/ton. At present, the market is generally in a stable state after the price increase, and the price has not fluctuated significantly.

2024-10-18 17:33:36

On the 16th, Chengdu-Deyang-Mianyang, Leyamei, Ganzi and other regions again notified an increase in cement prices by 50 yuan/ton.

2024-10-16 10:31:50

According to the China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in Lanzhou-Baiyin area of Gansu Province has risen by 10 yuan/ton; the prices in Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Shaanxi are stable. Affected by the big drop in temperature, rain and snow before the festival, the market demand in Qinghai has declined significantly. As the weather cleared up, cement sales in the region rebounded, and the market showed signs of warming up.

2024-10-12 17:29:56

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the market price of Sichuan and Chongqing in the southwest region continues to rise; Yunnan region is weak and stable; Zunyi, Guizhou has notified to raise the cement price by 10 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-10-12 17:26:43

After the National Day, the domestic concrete market demand rebounded slightly, but the total amount is still relatively weak, concrete enterprises are mainly shipping at stable prices, and have not yet followed the rise of raw materials. From October 3 to October 9, the national concrete price index closed at 112.82 points, in line with the National Day holiday, with a year-on-year decline of 10.21%.

2024-10-12 17:25:54

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern Guangdong, western Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta region will be raised by 20-30 yuan/ton this week, and cement prices in Guangxi will also be raised. The Hubei region continued to push up 30-50 yuan/ton, the overall market in Hunan was stable and small, and the Yueyang region was notified to rise.

2024-10-12 17:23:19

The price of raw materials is pushed up, and the price of concrete in southwest China is mainly stable temporarily.

2024-10-12 15:13:04

From November 11 to December 12, some major enterprises in Lanzhou, Dingxi, Gannan, Linxia and other places in Gansu Province successively notified an increase in cement prices by 10 yuan/ton.

2024-10-11 17:38:55

After the National Day holiday, the actual transaction price of some major manufacturers in the province dropped by about 30 yuan..

2024-10-10 17:07:43

Recently, the domestic market demand in some areas has improved slightly compared with the previous period, but the overall situation is still weaker than same period in history, and the price of concrete remains stable and weak. From September 19 to September 25, the national concrete price index closed at 112.82 points, down 0.10% annually and 10.45% year-on-year.

2024-09-27 17:57:56

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong in the central and southern regions is general, while the Guangxi region is stable and declining. Eastern Hubei and other regions plan to push up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton again. Driven by the price increase in eastern Hubei, individual market prices in Hunan have been notified to rise again.

2024-09-27 16:48:15

The price of raw material cement in many places in southwest China continues to rise, or will affect the price of concrete..

2024-09-27 15:42:03

Market demand has not improved, although the price of raw materials has been pushed up, the price of concrete is mainly stable.

2024-09-27 15:20:26

In order to increase profits, major enterprises in Tianshui and Longnan Chengxian notified an increase in cement prices by 30 yuan/ton around the 23rd.

2024-09-25 16:05:55

Since September 21, the manufacturers in the main urban area of Chongqing have notified the cement price to be raised by 50 yuan/ton, and the western Chongqing area has notified the cement price to be raised by 30 yuan/ton.

2024-09-24 13:47:20

Since the 22nd, major manufacturers in Fujian have begun to notify the increase of the price of all kinds of cement by 20 yuan/ton.

2024-09-23 13:15:11

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, cement prices in the Pearl River Delta market in central and southern Guangdong are planned to stop falling and rise again, while prices in individual markets in Guangxi have experienced a second round of decline. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, the range of price increases in the two lakes areas has been extended to the whole province, pushing up by about 30 yuan/ton. Since the 10th, some major manufacturers in Henan have pushed up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton, but the actual implementation is not ideal, some enterprises have not implemented in place, and the quotation remains at the level before the rise.

2024-09-20 17:10:16

Major enterprises in Guangdong plan to raise the price of cement by about 30 yuan/ton from the Pearl River Delta market on the 21st.

2024-09-20 16:23:10

The price of raw material cement in Chongqing and Sichuan continues to rise, and the price of concrete may rise slightly..

2024-09-20 15:11:23

In the first half of the year, China's cement output fell by 10% year-on-year, the price of P.O42.5 bulk cement fell by 18% year-on-year, both volume and price fell, and the whole industry lost money in the first half of the year, which was rare in history. Similar to the decline in domestic cement demand, cement demand in neighboring South Korea has also fallen sharply this year, but the price performance has been unusually strong. Facing the same decline in demand and overcapacity, why are the prices of the two countries different?

2024-09-18 11:46:02

Recently, the price of raw materials has shown an upward trend again, but due to the lack of new orders in the concrete market and the fierce competition among enterprises, the focus of transactions continues to decline steadily. From August 29 to September 4, the national concrete price index closed at 113.17 points, down 0.45% annually and 11.09% year-on-year.

2024-09-06 17:22:16

The price of raw materials in the Yangtze River Delta region of East China has been rising, and the price of concrete is weak and stable.

2024-09-06 12:01:33

Since June 6, the leading enterprises in the region have again notified an increase in cement prices by 20 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-09-06 09:28:19

Leading enterprises in Chengdu, Deyang, Mianyang, Leshan, Ya'an and other places in the province plan to raise cement prices by about 40 yuan/ton from September 6.

2024-09-05 15:38:53

On September 1, some leading enterprises in Guangxi notified many places to reduce the price of cement by about 20-30 yuan/ton.

2024-09-02 15:30:59

Most regions in China are affected by capital factors, lack of construction increment downstream, no improvement in concrete market demand, and downward pressure on local quotations. From August 22 to August 28, the national concrete price index closed at 113.68 points, down 0.42% annually and 11.12% year-on-year.

2024-08-30 17:31:27

Demand in the southwest region is sluggish, and concrete prices are running weakly..

2024-08-30 17:01:21

Since the 26th, major enterprises in Lhasa, Xigaze and other places have notified to raise the price of cement by 20 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-08-30 11:42:31

According to the report, in the second half of 2024, the external environment is still complex and severe, and the operation and development still face many risks and challenges. From the perspective of the industry, in the second half of the year, the marginal demand for cement improved, the supply compression continued to increase, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry was prominent. From the company's point of view, strategic opportunities and risks coexist, uncertainties increase, the complexity and severity of the business situation, the heavy and arduous tasks continue to intensify.

2024-08-27 11:20:44

Since the 26th, enterprises in Northeast Jiangxi, Nanchang, Yichun, Ji'an and other places have again notified an increase in cement prices by 20 yuan/ton..

2024-08-26 13:49:21

Recently, major enterprises in Jiuquan and Jiayuguan have lowered the price of cement by about 20-30 yuan/ton.

2024-08-23 17:28:42

In the short term, rigid peak staggering is the only way out for the cement industry. We must accurately stagger the peak and stop at the same time. If it is difficult to start at the same time, we should stop at the same time first. In the long run, further improving the concentration is an effective way to reduce production capacity in the cement industry.

2024-08-23 13:13:52

The key reason is that even if companies want to shut down now, it is difficult to find buyers willing to take over. The essence of capital is the pursuit of profit, no enterprise is willing to "self-sacrifice" for no reason, they all hope to get better returns when they exit the market as far as possible.

2024-08-15 17:10:12

We need to establish the core values of "others earn more, I can earn more" to guide production and operation. In the short run, only by actively limiting production and restoring the balance of supply and demand in the weak market, can the cement industry achieve a recovery in efficiency. Without enough initiative and consistency to limit production, all those who talk about the price of cement are cheaters and hooligans, and they can not succeed.

2024-08-13 15:12:11

Recently, the overall domestic demand has declined steadily, coupled with the weakening of local cost support, and the price of concrete has been stable and small. From November 14 to November 20, the national concrete price index closed at 112.35 points, down 0.13% annually and 10.08% year-on-year.