"According to my judgment, the cement market in Inner Mongolia will go up this year ." For a long time, due to the imbalance between supply and demand of cement and the problem of PVC clinker, Inner Mongolia has always been the depression of cement price in China . However, it is gratifying that the author recently learned that local cement practitioners have confidence in this year's Inner Mongolia market. According to the data of
China Cement Network, the price of cement in Inner Mongolia had been in a downturn before April 2021, and after August, the price of cement began to rise sharply, with the highest average price of cement in the year reaching 474 yuan/ton. It has swept away the price decline in the past two years. Shortly after the Spring Festival of the Year of
the Tiger, the message of price increase came from Inner Mongolia. China Cement Network Market Data Center said that from February 14 to 17, some major manufacturers in Hohhot, Wulanchabu and other places in Inner Mongolia began to try to push up cement prices by 20-30 yuan/ton.
For this price adjustment, the author understands that the main reason is that the price of raw material coal is rising and the inventory is too low. Inner Mongolia market demand has not yet fully recovered, usually until March, cement demand will slowly rebound. However, the clinker inventory of some cement enterprises in Inner Mongolia may be the lowest in the past 5-10 years, and the inventory of grinding stations is particularly low , and the surrounding areas of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and northern Shanxi are facing the phenomenon of low inventory. According to the requirements of peak staggering production in Inner Mongolia, from December 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022, all cement clinker production lines in Inner Mongolia will implement peak staggering production for four months. In other words, the low clinker inventory will continue at least until early April, and even if the demand for cement gradually picks up after March, it will also face a tight supply of cement.
In addition, according to the author's observation, the opening price of local coal in Inner Mongolia this year is higher than average price of last year, and the ex-factory price of coal is about 800 yuan/ton. The high cost of coal and the low inventory are the reasons for the cement price increase from February 14 to 17. Although the market has not yet started, the signal from the price increase is more confident. It is expected that the cement price in 2022 will be higher than that in 2021. The cement market in Inner Mongolia will go uphill
in 2022.
Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, the author believes that the cement market in Inner Mongolia will go uphill. The main reasons are:
First, the elimination and withdrawal of production capacity is sufficient. Previously, the problem of overcapacity in Inner Mongolia has been more prominent, but in recent years, with the increasing efforts to eliminate production capacity, the local capacity utilization rate in Inner Mongolia has increased from 38.53% in 2017 to 55.63% in 2020, and the industry environment has been improving.
Second, major projects support cement demand. On February 9, 2022, the National Economic and Social Development Plan of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in 2022 was officially released. The Plan proposes to moderately advance the layout of infrastructure construction, speed up the construction progress of Baoyin high-speed rail (including Bayin Branch Line) and Jidayuan high-speed rail, actively promote the preliminary work of Eyuyan high-speed rail and other projects, and strive to achieve a railway construction scale of 1700 kilometers (470 kilometers of high-speed rail).
Overall, the number of major projects in Inner Mongolia in the past few years is relatively scarce, and this year's construction of many high-speed rail will inevitably lead to the increase of cement demand in Inner Mongolia in 2022, and the investment landing of major projects will also ease the decline in demand caused by the downturn of real estate to a certain extent. The demand for cement in Inner Mongolia in 2022 may increase compared with 2021.
In addition, clinker and cement in Inner Mongolia region have been transported to Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and other places by means of public transit railway and automobile transportation, which has formed a certain scale. In addition, the expected growth of cement price and cement demand indicates that the cement market in Inner Mongolia will usher in a favorable situation in 2022.
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