涨价100元/吨!难掩背后危机!贵州水泥市场最后的归宿在哪?

2021-08-25 09:11:33

正所谓“破而后立,晓喻新生”,贵州水泥行业如果最终走到通过完全市场竞争化解产能过剩,实现行业的新生,或许也是置之死地而后生的无奈之举。

据中国水泥网行情数据中心消息,近期贵州水泥价格迎来大幅上涨,涨幅普遍在50-60元/吨。今年以来,贵州水泥价格回暖趋势明显,从2月中旬270元/吨左右,至当前的370元/吨左右,累计涨幅达100元/吨左右。

如果仅仅从价格态势来看,似乎贵州水泥市场正在走出阴霾迎来新生,但事实恐怕没有这么乐观。当前,影响贵州水泥市场的不利因素依旧没有从根本上解决,未来贵州水泥市场走向何方存在极大的不确定性。

限电+错峰 力推贵州水泥价格回暖

从中国水泥网行情数据中心监测数据来看,近两周区域P.O42.5水泥平均价格累计涨幅达到60元/吨左右,与去年同期价格下跌30元/吨形成鲜明对比。

针对贵州当前水泥价格大幅度上涨,当地企业及业内相关人士表示,三大因素在其中起到了至关重要的作用。

1、限电严重部分企业已经被拉闸

据有关媒体报道,夏季用电高峰期,贵州电网出现电力供应紧张甚至短缺局面,进入七月下旬以来,贵州地区限电情况逐步升级,部分供电局发布限电通知,水泥企业限制用电负荷,导致企业生产受限。

当地某水泥企业则表示,现在限电情况非常严重,贵州西电东送到广东,最近广东台风结束,用电负荷加大,贵州每天电力缺口在300万度/秒,有的水泥企业已经被拉闸。

受各地区不同程度的限电影响,贵州水泥企业产能发挥不足,成本上升,进而带动水泥价格上涨。

2、价格长期低位叠加原材料成本上涨

据中国水泥网行情数据中心消息,贵州水泥价格长期处于低位,年后虽然出现明显上涨,但涨幅不大,整体价格在330元/吨左右,仍处于水泥价格洼地,企业上调水泥价格的意愿较强。

与此同时,今年大宗商品价格上涨趋势明显。动力煤价格一路走高,上半年动力煤均价816.5元/吨,较去年同期542.8元/吨暴涨50.4%,且短期内煤炭价格居高不下,水泥生产成本有增无减,导致水泥企业生产成本增加。

3、错峰生产加码行业自律提升

拉闸限电严重及原材料成本上涨给贵州水泥价格上涨提供了客观条件,错峰生产加码及行业自律提升则为本轮行情回暖提供了主观基础。

据中国水泥网消息,8月15日,贵州省水泥工业协会发布《关于进一步做好2021年三、四季度水泥行业错峰生产的通知》。《通知》显示,贵州三季度错峰生产30天,外销熟料抵扣时间减半。四季度错峰生产30天,不做外销熟料抵扣与代停,精准错峰,刚性停窑,四季度提前停窑。

当地企业表示,今年错峰生产力度有了明显提升。根据年初贵州省工信厅、生态环境厅联合下发《关于做好2021年度水泥行业错峰生产的通知》,2021年度贵州省生产硅酸盐水泥熟料的生产线,每条线停窑时间为100天,一季度不少于40天,二季度不少于20天,三季度不少于20天,四季度不少于20天。

实际上,三季度错峰30天,四季度计划错峰30天,错峰生产时间增加,一定程度上缓解了供需矛盾。

另外,当地企业也表示,在经历了长时间的价格低谷之后,业内企业有意识通过行业自律,避免市场恶性竞争,也在较大程度上为稳定和提振行情起到了积极作用。

投资力度下滑 地方债务高企 水泥市场需求难见提升

整体来看,今年上半年贵州水泥价格回升态势明显,尤其是近期更是出现了50-60元/吨的上涨,但是从上涨的因素不难看出,积极因素几乎都出在供给端,需求端的积极影响甚微。事实上,据中国水泥网行情数据中心的了解,贵州地区市场需求当前并未全面启动,市场需求不足也为本轮涨价能否完全到位埋下了隐患。

1、产能过剩问题依旧是困扰贵州水泥行业的关键

与国内多数地区一样,产能过剩问题是制约贵州水泥行业发展的关键。

据中国水泥网公布的“2020中国水泥熟料产能百强榜”显示,当前贵州全省水泥熟料产能达到9300万吨,然而由于超产情况的存在,据当地企业表示,贵州熟料实际产能超过1亿吨,水泥产能1.3亿吨,但省内需求仅8000多万吨,企业只能通过加大对四川、重庆、湖南、云南、广西、安徽等地的外运提升产能利用率,内部市场竞争压力较大。

与此同时,近年来贵州新建熟料产能力度却并不低。

根据中国水泥网大数据中心统计数据,2020年贵州投产熟料产能418.5万吨,排名全国第二;2019年投产139.5万吨,排名全国第五;2018年投产424.7万吨,排名全国第一。

产能集中度方面,西南水泥、海螺水泥合集产能占到贵州44.96%,但其余的台泥、红狮水泥、豪龙控股、鱼峰水泥、华润水泥、晴隆盘江、源锦水泥等企业产能占比基本在1%-6%之间。第一梯队没有绝对的话语权,第二梯队数量众多,且不乏竞争力极强的地方强企,导致贵州市场稳定性不足。在产能过剩背景下,错峰生产执行难度加大,市场更容易产生动摇。

2、扶贫工程收尾 重点项目少 市场需求不足

当地企业表示,贵州水泥市场之所以陷入泥潭,与前些年过度投资,水泥需求提前释放有着很大的关联。

业内人士指出,以往贵州贫困地区较多,为改善地区发展面貌,提升人民生活水平,实现脱贫致富,前些年政府新建了一大批的扶贫工程。相关统计数据显示,2017-2020年贵州省固定资产投资增速分别为20.1%、15.8%、1%、3.2%,步入2019年以后,固定资产投资增速出现了明显的断崖式下滑。

户户通、组组通工程拉动下,水泥需求虚假繁荣。如今,随着贵州扶贫工作基本完成,水泥需求陆续回落。

当地企业指出,当前贵州重点工程很少,较大程度上制约了水泥需求的发挥,民用和房地产成为当前水泥的主要需求来源,但是一方面贵州经济实力较弱,造血能力相对较低,限制了水泥需求增长;另一方面,房地产行业形势欠佳,难以为水泥需求提供强力支持,种种因素下水泥市场需求并不乐观。

3、地方债务高企 水泥需求难提振

地方债务问题突出,同样为贵州水泥市场需求提升带来制约。

由中国国债协会、中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司共同编著的《中国地方政府债券发展报告(2021)》显示,在债务率上,全国有9个省份超过100%的临界值,其中贵州和内蒙古常年居于债务率前两位。

地方债的增长,一方面有望进一步推动有效投资扩大,另一方面则存在增加城市债务风险的可能。

文中还指出,贵州财政实力较弱,收入增速趋缓,财政平衡对上级补助的依赖程度较大。同时,2017~2019年间,贵州一般公共预算收入增速减缓,财政平衡率不断下滑,债务余额/一般公共预算收入2019年大幅上升,达3年内最高,贵州省偿债能力下降,因而债务风险不容小觑。

当地水泥企业表示,由于地方负债率较高,可能将进一步限制后期贵州大型基础建设的投资力度,进而影响水泥需求提升。

置之死地而后生 或成贵州水泥最后的归宿

当前,贵州水泥市场态势正吸引着业内众多关注的目光,不仅仅在于其长期处于价格洼地,更在于贵州水泥行业正在发生的问题,可能为国内其他区域未来水泥市场转型提供思考和借鉴。

那么面对市场困局,未来贵州水泥市场将何去何从?

当地某水泥企业负责人在与笔者交流过程中表示,由于需求端难以为行情提升提供有效支撑,因此短期来看,贵州水泥行业要维持市场稳定,仍然需要依靠严格执行错峰生产和行业自律,但是从长远来看,真正化解产能过剩才是一剂良药。不过,正所谓“良药苦口”,要想真正的化解产能过剩问题,并不容易。

上述企业负责人提出了三个方向:

1、加大落后产能淘汰力度。即,通过进一步严格要求能耗、环保等企业发展指标,对不符合要求的水泥企业执行关停政策。

2、严格产能置换政策,甚至出台地方法规,进一步提高产能置换比例,统一执行减量置换,严禁变相增量建设生产线。

3、利用市场机制,淘汰部分竞争力不足的生产线。

该企业负责人指出,当前贵州产能过剩问题尚未到难以调和之时,但是如果需求持续低迷,市场环境进一步恶化,未来错峰生产和行业自律恐怕也难以对市场稳定产生作用,届时回归市场竞争可能难以避免,而从现在的态势来看,由于长期需求难以看到强力回升,未来价格战的可能性正在越来越大。

该负责人称,化解产能过剩是贵州水泥市场破局的突破口,而市场行为可能会成为最终不得不迈出的一步。

正所谓“破而后立,晓喻新生”,贵州水泥行业如果最终走到通过完全市场竞争化解产能过剩,实现行业的新生,或许也是置之死地而后生的无奈之举。

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Correlation

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.

2024-11-08 17:41:17

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in Chongqing in the southwest region is pushed up by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the implementation is to be observed; the price in Zhaotong in Yunnan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation is to be observed; the price in Nanchong, Guang'an and Suining in Sichuan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the price in Yibin and Luzhou is partially dropped.

2024-11-08 17:19:35

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: Raw Materials Rise, Concrete Prices in Southwest China May Be Raised

2024-11-08 17:11:43

The number of off-peak days in Hebei and Shanxi in the third quarter was significantly longer than that in the same period. Although Inner Mongolia has not yet announced the specific time of kiln shutdown in the third quarter of 2023, according to the regional cement production, the time of kiln shutdown in the same period is less than that in the third quarter of 2024. On the whole, the peak staggering time in North China is prolonged.

2024-11-05 09:33:00

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: The price of raw material cement in southwest China is pushed up, or the concrete market is pushed up.

2024-11-01 17:04:42

Recently, the domestic temperature has dropped, local demand has dropped compared with the previous period, and the price of concrete market is mainly in a narrow range. From October 24 to October 30, the national concrete price index closed at 112.12 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.33% year-on-year.

2024-11-01 01:06:33

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Recently, the construction in the south is relatively active, the local market demand is warming up, coupled with the increasing pressure on the cost side, the market price trend is stable and small. From October 17 to October 23, the national concrete price index closed at 112.14 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.65% year-on-year.

2024-10-25 17:29:24

Southwest raw material cement prices push up, or push up the concrete market..

2024-10-25 14:53:28

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the demand in Sichuan and Chongqing in Southwest China has improved, and the cement price has been steadily promoted; the price increase in Yunnan and Guizhou may be blocked. It is understood that the fourth quarter of Yunnan plans to implement peak staggering production for 51-60 days, affected by the policy, the output of enterprises in the region has declined, and the inventory has declined slightly.

2024-10-18 17:38:28

With the improvement of weather conditions, the domestic market demand has improved as a whole in the near future, but it is still difficult to reach the peak season level in previous years. Concrete enterprises mainly ship at stable prices, and there are still some downward adjustments. From October 10 to October 16, the national concrete price index closed at 112.16 points, down 0.59% annually and 10.64% year-on-year.

2024-10-18 17:28:46

The price of raw materials in Sichuan and Chongqing is pushed up, the implementation is relatively positive, and the price of concrete is mainly stable.

2024-10-18 17:03:45

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the market price of Sichuan and Chongqing in the southwest region continues to rise; Yunnan region is weak and stable; Zunyi, Guizhou has notified to raise the cement price by 10 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-10-12 17:26:43

After the National Day, the domestic concrete market demand rebounded slightly, but the total amount is still relatively weak, concrete enterprises are mainly shipping at stable prices, and have not yet followed the rise of raw materials. From October 3 to October 9, the national concrete price index closed at 112.82 points, in line with the National Day holiday, with a year-on-year decline of 10.21%.

2024-10-12 17:25:54

The price of raw materials is pushed up, and the price of concrete in southwest China is mainly stable temporarily.

2024-10-12 15:13:04

Recently, the domestic market demand in some areas has improved slightly compared with the previous period, but the overall situation is still weaker than same period in history, and the price of concrete remains stable and weak. From September 19 to September 25, the national concrete price index closed at 112.82 points, down 0.10% annually and 10.45% year-on-year.

2024-09-27 17:57:56

The price of raw material cement in many places in southwest China continues to rise, or will affect the price of concrete..

2024-09-27 15:42:03

Recently, the local weather conditions in China are not good, the recovery of market demand is insufficient, the price of concrete is mainly stable, and the local pressure is falling. From September 12 to September 18, the national concrete price index closed at 112.93 points, down 0.21% annually and 10.83% year-on-year.

2024-09-20 17:55:34

The price of raw material cement in Chongqing and Sichuan continues to rise, and the price of concrete may rise slightly..

2024-09-20 15:11:23

Recently, the price of raw materials has shown an upward trend again, but due to the lack of new orders in the concrete market and the fierce competition among enterprises, the focus of transactions continues to decline steadily. From August 29 to September 4, the national concrete price index closed at 113.17 points, down 0.45% annually and 11.09% year-on-year.

2024-09-06 17:22:16

The demand for concrete in southwest China is still not ideal, and the price is mainly weak and stable.

2024-09-06 17:02:17

Most regions in China are affected by capital factors, lack of construction increment downstream, no improvement in concrete market demand, and downward pressure on local quotations. From August 22 to August 28, the national concrete price index closed at 113.68 points, down 0.42% annually and 11.12% year-on-year.

2024-08-30 17:31:27

Domestic high temperature rain weather has not yet subsided, downstream construction activity is still low, the concrete market is relatively flat, and the market price is stable. From August 15 to August 21, the national concrete price index closed at 114.16 points, down 0.28% annually and 11.40% year-on-year.

2024-08-23 17:35:52

The price of raw materials in many places has fallen, and the price of concrete in southwest China is running weakly.

2024-08-23 15:45:37

Domestic construction conditions have not improved significantly, coupled with the small number of new key projects, the market demand is still relatively low, and the price of concrete has fallen more or risen less. From August 8 to August 14, the national concrete price index closed at 114.48 points, down 0.33% annually and 11.69% year-on-year.

2024-08-17 10:46:53

The domestic market continued to be controlled by the hot and rainy weather, the market demand was weak, the price of concrete continued to fall steadily, and the decline in Sichuan and Chongqing was relatively large. From August 1st to August 7th, the national concrete price index closed at 114.86 points, down 0.43% from the previous month.

2024-08-09 18:09:08

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center, the market demand in southwest Sichuan and Chongqing continued to be weak, cement prices in some regions fell by 10-20 yuan/ton, and Yunnan-Guizhou region was mixed. The market demand continued to be weak due to the high temperature off-season in Sichuan and Chongqing, and some enterprises in Sichuan lowered the cement price to increase the shipment volume, while the original plan to raise the price in Chengdu was not implemented. The demand for cement in Chongqing is declining and the price is stable. Rainy weather in Yunnan is frequent, market demand is low, and prices in some areas have fallen after pushing up. Cement prices in Guizhou are generally stable.

2024-08-09 17:19:44

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of the rebound in cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of central and southern Guangdong is not optimistic, and the Guangxi region is tepid. The market prices of the two lakes are basically stable, and there is a decline in some areas. Leading enterprises in Guangdong try to restore the price of cement, but under the influence of high temperature weather, the actual effect is not good. The rain weather in Guangxi is decreasing, the market demand is limited, the price is stable, and the local market is falling. Cement prices in Hubei are stable, and high temperatures affect demand. The Hunan area continues the high temperature, the demand is weak, the partial price falls. Affected by rainfall, the market demand in Henan is not good, and the price is stable.

2024-08-09 17:12:17

The rainy weather is still the same, and the price of concrete in southwest China is slightly loose.

2024-08-09 17:03:25

Domestic construction conditions have not been significantly improved, coupled with insufficient new projects in most regions, the concrete market is still flat. From July 25th to July 31st, the national concrete price index closed at 115.36 points, down 0.59% from the previous month.

2024-08-02 17:29:53

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the demand and sales in southwest China are sluggish, cement prices in Sichuan and Chongqing continue to fall, and some regions have fallen back to the level before the price increase in June. Some markets in the surrounding Yunnan-Guizhou region are still pushing up in the week, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-08-02 17:25:15

Demand is declining, supply is increasing, and the price of sand and gravel industry is adjusted in an all-round way.

2024-07-31 15:56:20

Rainfall continued in many parts of the country, local typhoons invaded, downstream construction was slow, and concrete prices fell steadily. From July 18th to July 24th, the national concrete price index closed at 116.05 points, down 0.58%.

2024-07-26 20:17:51

The market demand continues to be weak and the price of concrete is weak and stable.

2024-07-26 16:59:19

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the intensity of peak staggering has been increased, and the price of cement in Yunnan-Guizhou region has been raised by 30-100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed. Cement prices in some markets in Sichuan and Chongqing have dropped by 30-50 yuan/ton.

2024-07-26 16:56:03

On July 20, 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the implementation measures of capacity replacement in the cement and glass industry. The revised Measures for the Implementation of Capacity Replacement in the Cement and Glass Industry will come into effect on August 1, 2021.

2024-07-24 12:08:35

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.